The No. 1 Oregon Ducks stomped their way into the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals and face off against the rival No. 5 Oregon State Beavers at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Friday.
Oregon State overcame an early 16-point deficit to edge UCLA in overtime in the quarterfinal round Wednesday night and now has a quick turnaround against the top team in the conference. The Ducks will be relatively fresh for this second game of the postseason after cruising past Arizona State 91-73 as 9.5-point chalk.
Check out our college basketball betting free picks and predictions for Oregon State vs. Oregon on March 12.
Oregon State vs Oregon odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonOregon is down a tick from -8.5 to -8 at TwinSpires, but the bulk of the action is on the Ducks, with a 3/1 ticket count and money running 2/1 as of 6 p.m. ET. The total is down to 136 from a 138.5 opener, with tickets 4/1 and money 5/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks betting preview
Injuries
Oregon State: None.
Oregon: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Oregon has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Oregon.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
These former “Civil War” rivals played just last weekend, with the Ducks dominating the Beavers in an 80-67 win as 5.5-point road favorites. That was revenge for a 75-64 home loss to OSU back on January 23, which was Oregon’s first game back after a two-week COVID-19 shutdown. The Ducks were also without Chris Duarte and L.J. Figueroa for that contest.
Flash forward to Thursday, and the Ducks clearly look like the top seed in the conference. They started slowly versus Arizona State but eventually took over, thanks to an efficient attack that feasted on a weak Sun Devils interior. Oregon scored 48 of its 91 points in the paint and shot an incredible 59 percent from the field. The Ducks also dropped in 10 3-pointers on 18 attempts from long range.
Oregon State has the size to plug up the middle of the key, as they rank 22nd in average height and boast a +1.2 efficient height metric at KenPom.com. However, it may not have the legs to get up and down with the Ducks’ athletic bigs after a grueling matchup with the physical Bruins that featured 48 total personal fouls and had five players foul out of the game.
Oregon presents a relentless offensive attack that sits 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency and will force the rival Beavers to pick their poison: pack the paint or let the Ducks bomb away from deep? Oregon has been scorching from beyond the arc during its current six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS), shooting a collective 61-for-127 (48 percent) from the perimeter.
PREDICTION: Oregon -9 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Oregon State looked like it was going to get jobbed by the Bruins on Wednesday and were absolutely locked down for most of the first half, before erupting for 46 points in the final 20 minutes to force overtime. The Beavers shot over 50 percent from the field in the second half and finished the game 10-for-25 from 3-point range.
While not the strongest scoring side, OSU has seen an uptick in efficiency to finish out the Pac-12 schedule. In their final three games of the regular season, the Beavers knocked down 50.3 percent of their looks and played Over the number in each of those contests – stretching that streak to four with the Over against UCLA.
The Ducks have also dished out the Over profits in recent efforts, riding a six-game Over windfall into Friday’s semifinal. Oregon’s defense has been a bit lax in this stretch, allowing more than 68 points on 49.5 percent shooting through the final five games of the Pac-12 slate then allowing Arizona State to post 73 points in Thursday’s win, with 46 of those tallies in the second half.
These Beaver State foes topped the total in both matchups this season, going Over numbers of 137.5 and 137. Bookies have made a slight uptick to 140 points for this Pac-12 semifinal showdown, which shouldn’t be a problem for either side.
PREDICTION: Over 140 (-110)
Oregon State vs Oregon betting card
- Oregon -9 (-110)
- Over 140 (-110)
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