Oregon State vs Oregon Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ducks Have the Last Quack

Rivalries like this typically produce exciting games, but this year, Oregon is much better than the Beavers. With the Ducks fighting to stay near the top of the Pac-12, our college basketball picks don't expect them to play with their food tonight.

Feb 28, 2024 • 10:01 ET • 4 min read
N'Faly Dante Oregon Ducks NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Oregon State Beavers battle their rivals the Oregon Ducks on Wednesday night, with this 11 p.m. ET tipoff as the latest game on the college basketball odds board.

Chances are, you’re reading this after a busy night of hoops betting. Maybe it was good, and you’re rolling those winnings into this final Pac-12 tilt. Or perhaps it wasn’t so great, and you’re looking to salvage the day. 

Whatever path leads you here, welcome to the “Get Even or Get Even Deeper” game of the night. 

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for basketball’s version of the “Civil War” and give my free college basketball picks for Oregon State vs. Oregon on February 28.

Oregon State vs Oregon best odds

Oregon State vs Oregon picks and predictions

Oregon State is primed for a letdown spot when it comes to Eugene tonight. 

Sure, it’s a “rivalry game”, which can sometimes spark an extra effort. But the current state of the Beavers (last place in the Pac-12) and their situational circumstances all point to a dud of a game from Wayne Tinkle’s team.

Not only is OSU ripe for regression after stunning Stanford as 10.5-point road pups (the program’s first road win in the last 17 away games), but this meeting will be Oregon State’s third road stop in seven days. The legs and the focus won’t be there for a Beavers team in the conference cellar.

Oregon State is giving up 78.5 points per road game and watching host opponents fire up a 54% effective field goal rate. The Oregon Ducks do the most damage at home, scoring an average of 77.6 points while allowing just 67.8 in Nike Town — an average margin of almost 10 points per homestand.

While the ship has sailed for Oregon State, the Ducks still have plenty to play for in the final stretch of the regular season. Oregon sits third in the Pac-12 and is likely not getting any higher, however, the Ducks could dip if they stumble down the stretch with UCLA, Colorado, and California within striking distance.

Some game models for this latest installment of the hardwood “Civil War” have Oregon winning by as many as 15 points, with my projection at 13.5. That’s before shading the spread for Oregon State’s situational speedbumps. 

The Ducks won’t take their state rivals lightly after nearly getting knocked off in Corvalis just 11 days ago (won 60-58 but failed to cover as 7.5-point road chalk) and need a strong showing to set the tone for the home stretch.

This spread ranges from Ducks -11.5 to as high as -12.5, so shop around for that shorter line if you can.

My best bet: Oregon -11.5 (-110 at SIA)

Oregon State vs Oregon same-game parlay

Oregon -11.5

Oregon team total Over 75.5

N'Faly Dante 15+ points

The Ducks catch Oregon State in a nasty situational spot and game models call for as high as a 15-point win over their state rivals.

Oregon can fill it up at home and faces the worst defense in the Pac-12. The Ducks’ scoring projections all call for 77 points or more.

N'Faly Dante leads the charge for the Ducks, with player forecasts calling for at least 16 points. The big man had 22 points vs. OSU on Feb. 17.

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Oregon State vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis

Oregon opened as a 12.5-point home favorite and that spread has dipped to -11.5 at some sportsbooks, as of Wednesday morning. Covers Consensus shows 64% of early picks taking the points with the visitor.

Oregon State may have only three wins in its last 10 games, but the Beavers have had bite for college hoops bettors. They’re on a three-game ATS run and have gone 7-3 ATS in that 10-game window. 

That said, this trip to Matthew Knight Arena is OSU’s third straight road game in seven days, and Oregon State could be ripe for a letdown after scoring a notable upset at Stanford. The Beavers’ recent hot streak has improved them to 14-12 ATS on the year, including 5-4 ATS as a visitor.

The Ducks seem destined for third place in the Pac-12 if they can keep it together in the final four games of the season. Oregon plays three of those contests at home, starting tonight, and is 7-6 ATS as a host this season.

The Ducks have battled the injury bug this past month, losing three key role players for the remainder of the season. That’s left Dana Altman with a short bench that could have been shorter, pending KJ Evans’ status. The freshman forward was injured in the loss at Cal but is expected to play against OSU tonight.

Tonight’s game is the Ducks’ first showing back in Eugene in a while, having played their last three on the road. That away stretch included a 60-58 squeaker against the Beavers as 7.5-point road chalk on February 17.

Wednesday’s Over/Under total opened at 137.5 points and is up to 138 at some operators. Covers Consensus shows 64% of total picks on the Over tonight.

Oregon State is one of the better Over bets in the land, owning a 18-9 O/U count on the season with a 6-3 O/U mark on the road. The Beavers have played Over in three of their last four with that lone Under result coming in the loss to Oregon, which stayed below the closing total of 136.5 points.

As for the Ducks, they’re 15-12 O/U overall, including a 7-6 O/U record at home. Oregon followed a run of four straight Overs with four straight Unders, heading into this “Civil War” rivalry.

Oregon State vs Oregon betting trend to know

Oregon has covered the spread in 20 of its last 34 games (+4.60 Units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon State vs. Oregon.

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Oregon State vs Oregon game info

Location: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR
Date: Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET

Oregon State vs Oregon key injuries

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