It’s as classic of an ACC battle as you can get when North Carolina hits the road to face Virginia.
It’s been a great start to the season for the Cavs but its undefeated January has been particularly impressive. In fact, after road wins against Louisville and SMU, if you isolated just this month's numbers, UVA would be the number one team in the country per Torvik.
They’ll look to continue rolling against a talented Tar Heels team that has lost two of its last three after a wayward West Coast trip.
I break it all down in my North Carolina vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, January 24.
North Carolina vs Virginia prediction
North Carolina vs Virginia best bet: Virginia -6.5 (-115)
My model projects Virginia -8, making this 1.5 points of value on the Cavaliers at home. It’s easily my best bet on this game as a consequence.
Virginia's defense will disrupt everything UNC wants to do offensively. That’s the real story here.
As you’d expect, UNC has leaned heavily on star freshman Caleb Wilson this season with direct post-ups.
But the Virginia defense has been elite on the interior, holding opponents to just .53 points per possession on post-ups this season.
Henri Veesaar provides secondary scoring in the Big Cut & Roll game (1.44 points per possession, a truly elite threat), but those opportunities evaporate against the pack-line as well.
North Carolina will likely take the traditional UNC approach of speeding this up as much as possible but I’m dubious on how many transition opportunities they’ll create.
Virginia is gettable there but just like Louisville found out a week ago, it’s hard to get those opportunities against the Cavs. Turnovers are also a story here as a 13% turnover rate is never good when going on the road in the ACC.
Offensively, Virginia attacks UNC's glaring weakness: dribble jumpers. The Tar Heels defend that dribble creation at just 0.95 PPP allowed (14th percentile).
Virginia has shown enough capability all season to create off-the-dribble between a host of players like Malik Thomas, Sam Lewis, Dallin Hall, and Jacari White. On the other side, I simply can’t believe in North Carolina’s individual on-ball defense. The proof is in the numbers.
Virginia controls tempo, limits mistakes, and covers this one. I’d play it to 7.5.
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North Carolina vs Virginia same-game parlay
We started things off in our same-game parlay with Thijs De Ridder to clear 5.5 rebounds. This number has been adjusted slightly because of North Carolina’s rebounding profile, but I think his ability on the glass, paired with UNC’s poor perimeter shooting, gives him plenty of chances.
I paired that with Caleb Wilson to also clear his rebounding number. He’s cleared it in four straight games, and given how much I expect this one to be played in the half court, there’s value here.
North Carolina vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia -6.5
- Thijs De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds
- Caleb Wilson Over 9.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: De Ridder on full display
It makes sense to add De Ridder to clear his points total if we are taking his Over rebounds because of just how effective he’s been on put backs. But beyond that, the Virginia offense runs so much through him that he should have plenty of traditional scores as well.
The Cavs have been an elite big/cut roll offense this season and he’s a big part of that. I think UVA can attack a UNC defense that has just been average here.
North Carolina vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia -6.5
- Thijs De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds
- Caleb Wilson Over 9.5 rebounds
- Thijs De Ridder Over 15.5 points
North Carolina vs Virginia odds
- Spread: North Carolina +6.5 (-110) | Virginia -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: North Carolina +235 | Virginia -290
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)
North Carolina vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 31 games (+18.00 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Virginia.
How to watch North Carolina vs Virginia
| Location | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date | Saturday, January 24, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
North Carolina vs Virginia key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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