North Carolina vs Syracuse Odds, Picks and Predictions: Can Either Team Stop Each Other?

The North Carolina Tar Heels will look to end their road woes when they visit the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome on Tuesday night.

North Carolina (14-6) has won three in a row and is the highest-scoring team in the ACC. It takes on a Syracuse (13-7) team that has been successful in the ACC by mixing a balanced scoring attack with its trademark zone defense.

Both the Tar Heels and the Orange can score, which could lead to some fireworks at the dome tonight. We’ll break down what you can expect in our college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Syracuse on January 24. 

North Carolina vs Syracuse best odds

North Carolina vs Syracuse picks and predictions

The UNC Tar Heels feature one of the more balanced scoring attacks you’ll find anywhere in the country. They have three different players who score 16 or more points per game, including Armando Bacot (17.8 ppg), R.J. Davis (16.8 ppg), and Caleb Love (16.3 ppg). The result is an attack that scores 79.6 points per game, which ranks 30th in the country and first in the ACC.

If North Carolina is going to have one problem playing to its normal averages on Tuesday, it will be dealing with the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense. The typical way to beat the zone is to shoot over it, and the Tar Heels are shooting just 31.6% from 3-point range. 

However, the Orange haven’t been playing vintage defense this year. Rather than stymying teams, Syracuse has had to fight through shootouts to get wins as opponents find plenty of holes in its zone. The Orange are giving up 70 points per game, a mark that ranks outside the Top 200 in the nation.

Yet Syracuse is still 6-3 in the ACC, tied with UNC (and three other teams) for third in the conference. That’s largely due to its surprising ability to stay in those high-scoring games, particularly as the season has worn on. The Orange are averaging a solid 75.6 points per game themselves, and have scored 78 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.

Syracuse may not have the firepower of UNC, but it also has three players who share the scoring duties. Joe Girard III (17.5 ppg) gets the bulk of the attention, but freshman guard Judah Mintz (14.9 ppg) and senior big man Jesse Edwards (13.9 ppg) ensure that the Orange aren’t a one-trick pony.

It’s not as though the Tar Heels are shutting down their opponents, either. UNC is giving up 72.3 points per game, with opponents shooting 43.3% from the field against it. North Carolina has hit a few Unders lately during its three-game winning streak, but those games all came at home against some of the weaker teams in the ACC.

Both of these teams can score and have trouble slowing down opponents. North Carolina has shown a bit more defensive prowess lately, but has struggled on the road all year long, while Syracuse has shown a willingness (and perhaps even a need) to engage in shootouts in order to find wins. 

I expect a lot of points tonight. Even if both teams just hit their scoring averages, they’ll hit the Over on the total, and there’s the potential for this game to be played in the 80s tonight. I’m hammering the Over in this key ACC matchup.

My best bet: Over 149.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

North Carolina vs Syracuse spread analysis

The Tar Heels opened tonight’s game as a four-point favorite. There’s been some slight movement towards UNC since then, and you’ll find North Carolina -4.5 as the main line at most books as of noon on Tuesday.

This is an interesting matchup, as UNC is clearly the better team here in a vacuum. The Tar Heels are a borderline Top-25 squad, ranking No. 32 in the NET rankings and No. 24 in KenPom ratings. They’ve taken care of business against the teams they’re supposed to beat, and have pushed some of the best teams in the country, including a 103-101 overtime to the Alabama Crimson Tide back in November.

Meanwhile, Syracuse has lost games to the likes of the Colgate Raiders and the Bryant Bulldogs. The Orange will need to crush their ACC schedule to have any chance of sniffing the NCAA Tournament. On paper, this is a mismatch. 

Yet Syracuse is 6-3 in the ACC, and has been a solid 9-3 at home. North Carolina is just 1-4 in true away games, with its only win on the road coming at the Louisville Cardinals, a 2-17 team without an ACC win.

On balance, I still like UNC in this game. With a relatively modest spread, I’ll be betting the Tar Heels tonight, as they are the better team and I don’t want to read too much into their road struggles over a relatively small sample.

North Carolina vs Syracuse Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total opened at 150.5. You can still find that line at some sites, but a flat 150 has become the most common Over/Under, and there are even some 149.5 totals out there as of noon on Tuesday for those who want to tail my best bet.

Syracuse has been playing to bigger numbers this season, with the Over going 13-7 in its games. That’s largely a recent trend, as the Orange have hit the Over in eight consecutive contests.

This isn’t just a matter of books setting low totals and failing to react to the changing dynamics of how the Orange play, either. As I noted above, Syracuse has been scoring in most of its games, and has played to a total of above 150 in three of its last four contests. The Orange have covered the Over by more than 10 points in six of their last 10 games.

UNC has hit the Under in four straight, but played to the Over six times in a row before that. More relevantly, the Tar Heels have scored 80+ points in seven of their last 10 games, and have only been held Under 70 points once in that stretch. Both teams can and should score tonight, making the Over the right play.

North Carolina vs Syracuse betting trend to know

The Over is 11-1 in Syracuse’s last 12 games. Find more College basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Syracuse.

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