The No. 16-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face the NC State Wolfpack tonight in NCAA hoops action.
The Tar Heels are 6.5-point underdogs due to injuries, but my North Carolina vs. NC State predictions think that line is an overreaction.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this ACC showdown on Tuesday, February 17.
North Carolina vs NC State prediction
North Carolina vs NC State best bet: North Carolina +6.5 (-110)
The North Carolina Tar Heels were dealt a blow when they lost star forward Caleb Wilson (19.8 points per game) to a fractured hand last week. They were also missing center Henri Veesar (16.4 PPG, 9.0 rebounds per game) due to illness against Pittsburgh on Saturday, but still won 79-65.
Veesar is questionable tonight, and oddsmakers are undervaluing UNC's depth and ability to compete against an in-state rival.
The NC State Wolfpack haven't looked sharp lately, failing to cover in their last four games. They are coming off a home loss to Miami and were crushed 118-77 by Louisville before that.
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North Carolina vs NC State same-game parlay
UNC forward Jarin Stevenson has stepped up, scoring 13 points in a loss at Miami last week and dropping 19 points in a season-high 36 minutes versus Pitt. He should take advantage of a small Wolfpack frontcourt that doesn't defend well inside.
The non-correlated multiplier for backing UNC on the spread and NC State on the ML is tempting. While I expect the Tar Heels to keep things close, they rank dead last in 3-point defense (40%) in conference play, while NC State is sixth in the country in 3PT% (39.6%).
North Carolina vs NC State SGP
- North Carolina +6.5
- Jarin Stevenson Over 9.5 points
- NC State moneyline
Our beyond the arc SGP: Trimble catches fire
The Wolfpack are second-last in the conference in 3-point defense (37.1%), and UNC guard Seth Trimble has knocked down a three in nine of his last 14 games.
North Carolina vs NC State SGP
- North Carolina +6.5
- Jarin Stevenson Over 9.5 points
- NC State moneyline
- Seth Trimble Over 0.5 threes
North Carolina vs NC State odds
- Spread: North Carolina +6.5 | NC State -6.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina +225 | NC State -275
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5
North Carolina vs NC State betting trend to know
The Wolfpack have gone Under their team total in six of their last seven home games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. NC State.
How to watch North Carolina vs NC State
| Location | Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
North Carolina vs NC State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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