Utah State vs Purdue Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Edey Continues Strong March Madness

The No. 8 seeded Utah State Aggies face the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday afternoon. The Boilermakers are among the popular college basketball picks to win it all, with the third-best March Madness odds at +650, while the Aggies are massive long-shots at +30,000. 

Purdue was shocked in the first round of the March Madness bracket last year but exorcised the demons of that defeat by hammering Grambling State on Friday. Oddsmakers have the Boilermakers as 11.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 148.5 for this Midwest Region clash. Here are my best free March Madness picks and predictions for Utah State vs. Purdue on March 24.

Utah State vs Purdue best odds

Utah State vs Purdue picks and predictions

The Purdue Boilermakers took a while to get going in their first-round clash against Grambling State but they finally woke up in the second half and won 78-50. Purdue's normally efficient offense didn't look good, but a massive 46-20 rebounding advantage and a defense that held the Tigers to 36% shooting from the field was enough to separate on the scoreboard.

Rebounding could play a big role in this matchup as well, since although the Utah State Aggies beat TCU 88-72 in the opening round, they were outrebounded 41-30. TCU shot just 38% from inside the arc in that contest, which is shocking since the Aggies entered the tournament ranking just 304th in the country in opponent two-point percentage (53.1%).

That weak interior defense should be exposed by Purdue center Zach Edey, who is the March Madness MVP odds favorite. Over the last 18 games, Edey is averaging 27.1 points and 13.4 rebounds per game while shooting 61.2% from the field.

The Aggies have a big frontcourt with seven-foot center Isaac Johnson and 6-foot-8, 250-pound star forward Great Osobor. Strangely enough, that actually makes it more likely that Edey will have a big game. Teams that play small ball and push the pace can sometimes force Edey out of his comfort zone or make Purdue coach Matt Painter roll with a smaller lineup himself. However, teams that also prefer a half-court style and try to send bigger bodies against Edey tend to get a higher dose of the Purdue big man.

With Edey dropping at least 28 points in six of his last seven games, bet the Over 25.5 on his points for Sunday.

My best bet: Zach Edey Over 25.5 points (-125 at bet365)

Utah State vs Purdue same-game parlay

Zach Edey Over 25.5 points

Fletcher Loyer Under 1.5 threes made

Over 148.5

+425 at bet365

Purdue guard Fletcher Loyer has a sizzling 44.8 3PT%, but he doesn't take a high volume of shots from deep. Over the last 12 contests, he's averaging just 2.3 3-point attempts per game which is inflated by a two-game span where he took 11 attempts against a pair of teams that defend poorly on the perimeter. On the other hand, the Aggies are third in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (29.1%) so don't expect Loyer's usual accuracy. That said, if the Boilermakers don't have much success from downtown, it only makes it more likely that they'll attack inside with Edey.

While I expect the Aggies to get bullied by Edey inside, I also think they'll do their part to help this total go Over. The Aggies are 31st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while boasting a sizzling 57.3 2PT%, and they've dropped at least 87 points in four of their last five games. Both of these teams also have strong Over trends with the Over 18-9 in Utah State's last 27 games while going 22-11 O/U in Purdue's previous 33 contests.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Utah State vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Boilermakers installed as 10.5-point favorites with the O/U at 149. Early money came in on the Boilermakers, moving the spread to -11.5, while the total has ticked down to 148.5.

The Boilermakers have been dominant all season and are fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 19th on defense. However, they've gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games and were fortunate to cover in Round 1, with rarely-used reserve Carson Barrett knocking down a wide-open three at the end of the game to cover by a point. The Boilermakers have a history of underachieving in March Madness, and after getting bounced in the opening round as a No. 1 seed last year, anything less than a Final Four appearance would be a massive disappointment.

The Aggies smoked TCU by 16 points in the opening round to easily cover as 3.5-point pups. They finished the regular season atop the Mountain West standings with a 14-4 record, but haven't been covering lately, going 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games. They are just 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season and have gone 3-7-2 ATS on the road. While this is technically a neutral site contest, it's taking place in Indianapolis, which is just an hour away from Purdue's home court at West Lafayette. 

Utah State vs Purdue betting trend to know

Purdue has covered 1H spread in 18 of its last 27 games (+7.7u/25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah State vs. Purdue.

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