Avert your eyes, children. This could get ugly.
The No. 1 Duke Blue Devils are massive 28.5-point favorites against the No. 16 Siena Saints in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The only reason bookies aren’t shovelling on more points is the Blue Devils’ recent health concerns.
With a couple of starters already sidelined, head coach Jon Scheyer will protect his key rotation players on Thursday, but Duke’s bench is still loaded with top-tier talents that would be stars with any other program.
Our Siena vs. Duke predictions see those reserves chomping at the bit to boost their stock on the national stage, and my March Madness picks aren’t shying away from this mountain of chalk.
Siena vs Duke prediction
Who will win Siena vs Duke?
Duke: Really, we’re doing this? Statistically, the Duke Blue Devils measure up as one of the greatest college teams in history. There's a notable gap between the Top 4 seeds and the rest of the bracket, and you could say there’s a sizable one between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Duke destroys, even with the Blue Devils giving it 80% in Round 1. The Siena Saints, by all accounts, shouldn't be here, winning the MAAC tournament as a No. 3 seed.
Siena vs Duke best bet: Duke -28.5 (-116)
When it comes to monster favorites in the Big Dance, those powerful programs live up to the hype. Since 1998, March Madness favorites of -28 or higher are 13-9 ATS.
Duke’s plan for Round 1 is to build a lead, sit the starters, and rest for the Round of 32. That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils can’t also cover this spread.
Going back to the non-conference slate, the Dukies laid spreads of 30+ and creamed those mid-major foes behind a bench scoring more than 36 points per game.
Projections bounce around 29 points, but I’ll give the Blue Devils the benefit of the doubt.
COVERS INTEL: The Blue Devils were 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS as favorites of -28 or more this season.
Siena vs Duke same-game parlay
The Boozer Twins will beat on the Saints. Cayden Boozer is getting more run with Caleb Foster out and is coming off twin 16-point outings in the ACC tournament.
Cameron Boozer won’t get his usual work in, but will be happy to pick apart Siena from beyond the arc. Before a 1-for-5 day from deep in the ACC title game, Boozer banged home 2+ triples in three straight games.
Siena vs Duke SGP
- Duke -28.5
- Cayden Boozer Over 9.5 points
- Cameron Boozer Over 1.5 threes
Our Big Dance SGP: Better the Devil you Know
Cameron Boozer won’t be going all out in Round 1. He’ll shoot some triples and look to get his teammates touches. Duke has gone Under the closing total in 12 of its last 18 games.
Siena vs Duke SGP
- Duke -28.5
- Under 136
- Cameron Boozer Over 1.5 threes
- Cameron Boozer Over 4.5 assists
Siena vs Duke odds
- Spread: Siena +28.5 | Duke -28.5
- Moneyline: Siena +1900 | Duke -25000
- Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136
Siena vs Duke betting trend to know
Duke has covered the spread in 11 of its last 18 games for +4.4 units and a 22% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for Siena vs. Duke.
How to watch Siena vs Duke
| Location | Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC |
| Date | Thursday, March 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Siena vs Duke key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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