The difference between the haves and have-nots in college basketball just keeps getting wider, which resulted in a chalky NCAA Tournament last year. My March Madness picks are betting on another tournament with few upsets in the opening rounds.
Will there be a Cinderella? Quite possibly, but trying to guess which team it is could prove costly if you take a swing on the wrong team in your bracket.
I play it safe in my March Madness bracket picks, but there are a few upsets I see happening along the way.
Rohit Ponnaiya's March Madness Bracket for 2026
My best March Madness bracket picks
My Final Four is extremely chalky with three No. 1 seeds, but these teams have been on a different tier than everybody else all season.
On one side of the bracket, the Duke Blue Devils get revenge for last season's Final Four loss to the Houston Cougars. Meanwhile, the Arizona Wildcats' Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley will be too much for a Michigan backcourt that will really miss LJ Cason in crunch time.
In the finals, Duke pulls off a razor-close win thanks to their superior 3-point shooting and another stat-stuffing performance from Player of the Year Cameron Boozer.
- Round 1 Upsets: 4
- Sweet 16 Cinderellas: 1
No. 11 Texas - Final Four:
No. 1 Duke vs No. 2 Houston
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan - National Championship
No. 1 Duke over No. 1 Arizona
East Region picks
This may as well be called the Blue Blood region with how many prestigious programs are here.
I'm not sold on No. 2 seed UConn, which has struggled with fouls and turnovers. Michigan State also has turnover issues and lacks a go-to scorer.
Kansas is also extremely talented, but their offense looked stale down the stretch despite finally having a healthy Darryn Peterson.
I'll back top-seeded Duke to come out on top with Boozer stepping up to replaced the injured Caleb Foster.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Duke over Siena |
| Round of 64 | Ohio St over TCU |
| Round of 64 | St. John's over Northern Iowa |
| Round of 64 | Kansas over Cal Baptist |
| Round of 64 | Louisville over South Florida |
| Round of 64 | Michigan St over North Dakota St |
| Round of 64 | UCLA over UCF |
| Round of 64 | UConn over Furman |
| Round of 32 | Duke over Ohio St |
| Round of 32 | Kansas over St John's |
| Round of 32 | Louisville over Michigan St |
| Round of 32 | UConn over UCLA |
| Sweet 16 | Duke over Kansas |
| Sweet 16 | Louisville over UConn |
| Elite Eight | Duke over Louisville |
Midwest Region picks
I'm not expecting many surprises in this region.
I'm tempted to back Iowa State to advance to the Final Four, especially since the Cyclones ball pressure can exploit Michigan's turnover issues.
That said, I backed the Wolverines to win the title back in November and I still think their size and two-way dominance will be too much. Especially since the Cyclones haven't looked nearly as impressive when they're not playing in a stadium filled with their own fans.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Michigan over Howard |
| Round of 64 | Saint Louis over Georgia |
| Round of 64 | Texas Tech over Akron |
| Round of 64 | Alabama over Hofstra |
| Round of 64 | Tennessee over Miami (OH)/SMU |
| Round of 64 | Virginia over Wright St |
| Round of 64 | Kentucky over Santa Clara |
| Round of 64 | Iowa St over Tennessee St |
| Round of 32 | Michigan over Georgia |
| Round of 32 | Alabama over Texas Tech |
| Round of 32 | Tennessee over Virginia |
| Round of 32 | Iowa St over Kentucky |
| Sweet 16 | Michigan over Alabama |
| Sweet 16 | Iowa St over Tennessee |
| Elite Eight | Michigan over Iowa St |
South Region picks
I'm expecting an Elite Eight rematch between Florida and Houston. However, this time the Cougars have a go-to scorer in Kingston Flemings, while the Gators don't have Walter Clayton and a stacked backcourt.
Florida's guards have struggled with turnovers and perimeter shooting, which will be exposed by Houston's ball pressure. And getting to play in Houston for the regional rounds will be an extra edge for Kelvin Sampson's squad.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Florida over PV A&M/Lehigh |
| Round of 64 | Iowa over Clemson |
| Round of 64 | Vanderbilt over McNeese |
| Round of 64 | Nebraska over Troy |
| Round of 64 | VCU over North Carolina |
| Round of 64 | Illinois over Penn |
| Round of 64 | Saint Mary's over Texas A&M |
| Round of 64 | Houston over Idaho |
| Round of 32 | Florida over Iowa |
| Round of 32 | Vanderbilt over Nebraska |
| Round of 32 | Illinois over VCU |
| Round of 32 | Houston over Saint Mary's |
| Sweet 16 | Florida over Nebraska |
| Sweet 16 | Houston over Illinois |
| Elite Eight | Houston over Florida |
West Region picks
Arizona has been dominant this season, and I expect them to cruise through a region where they other top contender has serious flaws.
No. 3 Gonzaga rarely gets tested in conference play, while No. 2 Purdue and No. 4 Arkansas both get torched inside the arc.
The Wildcats' only flaw is that they don't shoot many threes but that actually makes their offense more consistent since they don't need outside shots to drop in order to generate points.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Arizona over LIU |
| Round of 64 | Villanova over Utah St |
| Round of 64 | Wisconsin over High Point |
| Round of 64 | Arkansas over Hawaii |
| Round of 64 | Texas over BYU |
| Round of 64 | Gonzaga over Kennesaw ST |
| Round of 64 | Miami (FL) over Missouri |
| Round of 64 | Purdue over Queens |
| Round of 32 | Arizona over Villanova |
| Round of 32 | Arkansas over Wisconsin |
| Round of 32 | Texas over Gonzaga |
| Round of 32 | Purdue over Miami (FL) |
| Sweet 16 | Arizona over Arkansas |
| Sweet 16 | Purdue over Texas |
| Elite Eight | Arizona over Purdue |
Final Four and National Championship predictions
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Final Four | Duke over Houston |
| Final Four | Arizona over Michigan |
| National Championship | Duke over Arizona |
