Louisiana vs Tennessee Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Vols Quiet the Most Ragin' Cajun

After a strong start to the season, the Tennessee Volunteers limped to a 4-6 finish, including a loss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.

They hope to pick up the pieces — and avoid delivering as a popular upset choice for March Madness picks — as they face the 13th-seeded Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in their March Madness first-round matchup on Thursday night.

ULL has a dominant frontcourt presence and can be deadly from downtown, and will need to rely on both to pull off the upset, as March Madness odds opened with it as a double-digit dog. Meanwhile, the Vols will rely on their suffocating defense to try and steady the ship and get to the second round.

My best free college basketball picks are banking on the Vols' defense to shine — read on for a full Louisiana vs. Tennessee breakdown for Thursday night. 

Louisiana vs Tennessee best odds

Louisiana vs Tennessee picks and predictions

Jordan Brown is an outstanding player, as the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns big man led the team with 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game this season, while also chipping in better than a block per game — with the former five-star recruit is proving why he was originally recruited by Pac-12 power Arizona.

However, Brown isn’t unstoppable; he’s not used to facing frontcourts that can cause him problems, which is exactly what he will deal with against Tennessee. The Vols rank second in the nation in effective field goal defense and ninth in shooting percentage inside the arc.

Few teams allow a lower conversion rate at the rim than Tennessee, and it’s not just one player doing it. The Vols will throw out a trio of big bodies in Jonas Aidoo, Olivier Nkamhoua, and Uros Plavsic to make life miserable for Brown, as that depth allows them to be physical and stay out of foul trouble.

Plus, they also put immense pressure on opposing guards, sitting 27th in the nation with 8.3 steals per game, which will make it tougher for Brown to get into the ball in high-scoring spots.

At the other end, Tennessee also grabs the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game. That means extra opportunities and extra pressure on opponents — which can lead to foul trouble, one of Brown’s weaknesses as of late.

He's recorded at least four fouls 12 times in 29 game — and fouling out five times — and in eight of those games, he finished with 16 or fewer points.

Louisiana doesn't get to the free-throw line very much, nor does it register many assists per basket. Expecting Brown to successfully post up against a deep Tennessee frontcourt is a tall ask (no pun intended) and don't think he'll be able to deliver on that request.

Look for the Vols to force someone else to beat them, as they hold the big man Under 17 points on the night.

My best bet: Jordan Brown Under 16.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Louisiana vs Tennessee spread analysis

The Covers Consensus is expecting a closer game than the spread would suggest: The Vols line moved from -10.5 to laying 11.5 points as of Wednesday night, and 56% of the picks (and 53% of the money) are coming in on the Ragin’ Cajuns to cover that number.

The public might be on to something — Tennessee has covered just once in its previous seven NCAA Tournament games. The Vols also haven’t been covering much against teams with a winning record, sitting at 1-4 ATS against their last five such opponents.

Tennessee has a suffocating defense, with 20 of its 23 wins coming when it held opponents Under 63 points, but the offense can struggle if forced to try to keep up.

Louisiana averages 75.6 points per game, and only once this season has the Ragin’ Cajuns finished at 63 or fewer points.

I wouldn’t go so far as to predict an upset, but I don’t think the Vols cover the number. That said, neither team shoots well from the free-throw line, so if it comes down to fouls at the end, anything could happen...

Louisiana vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

Those free-throw struggles for both teams? One of the reasons why I love the Under in this game. While I’m on the opposite side of the Covers Consensus — which sees 56% of the picks and 77% of the money being laid on the Over 136.5 — there are multiple aspects of this game that have me leaning the other way.

Total bets often either win or lose at the line late in games, and it’s hard to trust a Louisiana team that ranks 321st with just a 67.2% success rate at the charity stripe... and Tennessee isn’t much better, hitting only 71.4% of its freebies.

A big part of Louisiana’s success this season has been its outside shot. The Ragin' Cajuns don’t attempt a whole lot of treys, but they rank 48th in outside shooting percentage. Fortunately for Under fans like me, the Vols don’t let many teams get good looks from downtown and their pace doesn’t allow many shot attempts overall.

Only two teams allow fewer made baskets per game, and they rank 26th in fewest attempts against.

Another key factor is the absence of Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler. Without their top distributor and second-leading scorer, the Vols are going to have to try to manufacture offense in some different ways.

Louisiana also comes into this contest having cashed the Under in four straight games, while the Vols have seen 137 points in a game just three of its last 12 games.

Louisiana vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Volunteers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisiana vs. Tennessee.

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