Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Life's Not Fair

Congratulations to the Farleigh Dickinson Knights for their win on Wednesday night. Their reward? An expected mauling from a heavy March Madness picks favorite, the No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers, and their towering star, Zach Edey.

The March Madness odds are long here, but can the spread for this one be set big enough?

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Farleigh Dickinson vs Purdue on March 17, with tip set for 6:50 ET.

Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue best odds

Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue picks and predictions

It might not be possible to describe how big a step up in competition this is for Farleigh Dickinson — not with numbers. The Knights are the worst remaining team in the NCAA tournament, per Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, more than 14 points worse than Kennesaw State, the next on that list.

Is that point a bit unfair, given the three other No. 16 seeds all played and lost on Thursday? Perhaps, but then again, only Texas Southern ranked lower in Pomeroy’s rankings than Farleigh Dickinson, fortunate that those two matched up on Wednesday. Texas A&M Corpus Christi might be 10 points better than the Knights and Northern Kentucky 11 points better.

Farleigh Dickinson just happens to come from a truly terrible conference. How terrible? Only the Knights rank in Pomeroy’s Top 300 teams in the country, at No. 299. FDU played just four teams inside the Top 200 this entire season, two more inside the Top 250.

A quick FYI, no reason, just something to mention: Purdue is No. 6 in Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings.

The Knights not only went 1-5 straight-up in those six games against teams outside the country’s dredges, but they also went 1-5 against the spread. The one win came at Saint Joseph’s, a December afternoon in which the Hawks fell a bit too in love with shooting from deep, partly because they were having success from there. But five extra missed shots from beyond the arc dropped St. Joe’s to 45.5% from the field, the difference in the 17-point loss against a remarkably efficient showing from Farleigh Dickinson, going 22-for-35 from inside the arc.

Totally unrelated, but just a couple of things that Purdue will not do in almost any circumstance: Shoot too many threes, taking them on only 38.1% of its field goal attempts, a rate that ranks No. 154 in the country. And give up efficient shooting close to the bucket: 7-foot-4 Zach Edey helps keep opponents to 47.3% inside the arc (No. 59 in the country) and to a 47.2 effective field goal percentage (No. 40).

Speaking of Edey, it feels relevant to point out Farleigh Dickinson ranks No. 353 in the country — as in Bottom 10 — in 2-point field goal percentage against at 56.1%, part of why it ranks No. 352 in effective field goal percentage against at 55.4%.

The step up in competition alone would be reason to doubt the Knights tonight, doubt them to such an extreme that one realizes bookmakers’ math cannot properly gauge it. But factor in how poor this matchup is for Farleigh Dickinson, needing to work inside the arc to succeed while having terrible defense in that exact area, all while facing, ya know, Zach Edey? Congratulations Knights, you won on Wednesday. Tonight should have no other glory, not even against the spread.

My best bet: Purdue -23 (-110 at DraftKings)

Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue spread analysis

That best bet was based on the thought that the math cannot keep up with how bad Farleigh Dickinson is compared to everyone else in the NCAA tournament, not to mention compared to Purdue. “The limit does not exist” is a wonderful meme, but limits very much do exist in bookmakers’ algorithms.

Now to play devil’s advocate and offer a reason to doubt the Boilermakers: This offense is not designed to blow out opponents. Purdue played 11 games against teams ranked 80th or lower by Pomeroy, including eight games against teams outside the Top 100 with three outside the Top 300, behind even Farleigh Dickinson.

The Boilermakers went 3-7-1 ATS in those 11 games, including 2-5-1 against the foes outside the Top 100 and 0-3 against the three considered worse than the Knights.

Those three games all featured spreads bigger than this one — -24.5 vs. Austin Peay, -30.5 vs. New Orleans, and -36.5 vs. Florida A&M — and none of the games were competitive, but Purdue still fell short of expectations.

On the flip side, none of those games came in 2023 and they all had much less at stake. College students should probably be granted some leeway in the second game of the year (Austin Peay) or in games a week apart around Christmas.

Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

Continuing to look at that subset of 11 Purdue games against woeful competition — let’s note that three of those did come in conference play because Nebraska struggled this year and Minnesota may have actually had a chance at a winning record in Farleigh Dickinson’s conference — the Boilermakers hit the Under in eight of them, in six of the eight games against teams outside KenPom’s Top 100 and in all three of the games against teams comparable to Farleigh Dickinson.

That 3-8 mark stands out considering Purdue otherwise went 12-10-1 to the Over this year, a totals track record very much dragged down by poor opponents.

That track record was buoyed by five straight Overs in conference play as January turned to February. No clear reason sticks out for that stretch, though the Boilermakers did dish out 16.7 assists per game, up from 14.9 in their other 15 conference regular-season games. More bad news for the Knights’ defense, as they give up the No. 314 assist rate in the country.

If Purdue gets on a roll tonight, it could notch a hefty number, but it will most likely be a one-sided assault on the total.

Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue betting trend to know

While the Boilermakers have been upset by St. Peters (+13) and North Texas (+7.5) in the last two tournaments, Matt Painter was 9-2 ATS in 11 first-round appearances with Purdue before that. Find more college basketball betting trends for Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue.

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