March Madness Picks: Best Bets and Player Props for Friday Sweet 16 Action

Prop bet #1: Tyler, The Creator

Marquette is one of the best offensive teams in the country, and that highly-efficient attack is spearheaded by senior point guard Tyler Kolek. Kolek leads the country with 7.9 assists per game, and the Golden Eagles offense struggled earlier in the month when an oblique injury sidelined him.

Kolek is back to being healthy and dishing out dimes once again, and he's in a favorable matchup tonight. The NC State Wolfpack are 75th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and rank just 162nd in opponent FG% (44%). They also play at an above-average tempo, and have surrendered 76.4 ppg over their last 15 games. 

It's surprising that Kolek's assists number is sitting at just 7.5, and while some books have the Over priced as high as -160, you can still grab it at -135. He's eclipsed this number in 11 of his last 15 contests while averaging 9.5 apg during that span, and in one of the contests where he went below that number, he exited early due to that injury. With Kolek racking up 11 assists in each of the first two games this tourney, bet on him to go Over his assists total again.

Tyler Kolek prop: Over 7.5 assists (-135 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Fil-ing it up

Duke's seven-foot center Kyle Filipowski will likely be the biggest player every time he steps on the floor but that doesn't mean he'll grab a ton of rebounds in this contest. Filipowski is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game and he often doesn't play up to his size.

Houston big men Ja'Vier Francis and J-Wan Roberts are undersized, but they're physical and active on the boards, and the Cougars guards also do a good job of grabbing loose rebounds. The Cougars are one of the best teams in the country on the offensive glass, and they rank 55th in overall rebounding rate. 

The O/U on Filipowski's rebounds today is set at 8.5, a number he has gone below in 11 of his last 16 games. When you also factor in the extremely slow pace that the Cougars play, the Under is the play here.

Kyle Filipowski prop: Under 8.5 rebounds (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Hungry dog

Gonzaga's offense has been unstoppable in the tourney and guard Nolan Hickman is a big reason why. Hickman dropped 17 points against Kansas in the second round, and he's now scored at least 16 points in eight of his last 11 games. Two of the games where we went below that number came against Saint Marys' highly-rated defense, and while he struggled against the Gaels he's in a better matchup versus Purdue. 

The Boilermakers do a good job of clogging up the paint and protecting the rim thanks to dominant center Zach Edey, but they're vulnerable on the perimeter. They don't pressure ball handlers, and they've also done a poor job of defending off the ball. Hickman thrives playing off the ball, and he's also extremely accurate on catch-and-shoot threes, while Purdue is just 318th at defending those shots per ShotQualityBets.

Nolan Hickman prop: Over 13.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)