March Madness Picks: Best Bets and Player Props for Today's Round 1 Action

Prop bet #1: The Hunter games

All indications are the Kansas big man is slated to make his return in Round 1, but Hunter Dickinson hasn’t played since March 9 in a blowout loss to Houston.

It’s the game in which he injured his shoulder midway through the second half, leaving him sidelined for the Big 12 Tournament, where the Jayhawks were subsequently bounced in their first game by Cincinnati.
 
Dickinson was the second-leading scorer in the Big 12 at 18 points per game, and he’ll be relied upon to steady an offense that will be missing conference scoring leader Kevin McCullar Jr (knee), who also left that Houston game in the second half.
 
Missing both All-Americans, Kansas has averaged just 49 points per game the last two games.
 
This is a tough spot for Dickinson to jump into though, as Samford brings a high-octane offense to the Delta Center that could run the lumbering 7-foot-2 center off the floor.
 
The Bulldogs are the no. 4 scoring team in college basketball at 86 points per game, and rank seventh in the NCAA in fast break points at over 15 per contest. They’re inside the Top 10 in tempo at KenPom.
 
Credit Dickinson for giving it a go, but I don’t think he cracks the 20-point plateau.

Hunter Dickinson prop: Under 19.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Davis of our lives

It’s always tricky when a top seed is in action in Round 1, because of the potential for a blowout and extended garbage time with bench players.
 
That might be the case when the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Wagner Seahawks, a team that just punched its ticket to the big dance with a win in the First Four Wednesday night.
 
So, instead of targeting RJ Davis’ scoring total (set at 18.5 points), we’ll instead look at his 3-point makes line, set at 2.5.
 
It’s been the best season shooting from distance for the senior guard, connecting on 40.6% of his triples on 7.7 attempts per game, both far and away career highs.
 
Davis is coming off a 30-point gem against NC State, which included four hits from downtown. 
 
He’s now hit at least three 3-pointers in eight of his last 12 games, with another two other those games falling short by just one moneyball.
 
Wagner ranks 16th in 3-point shooting defense in the nation, with teams shooting under 30% on the year, but they just allowed Howard, another 16 seed, to shoot 8-for-17 from distance, with Julian Brown connecting on three triples on his own. 
 
The plus odds are a bonus, as Davis finds the range Thursday.

RJ Davis prop: Over 2.5 threes made (+125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: The Love above

Let’s wrap things with 2-seed Arizona taking on Long Beach State. 
 
After a struggle to end the regular season, I’m banking on Caleb Love bouncing back and setting the tone for the Wildcats and their third-ranked scoring offense (87.9 points per game).
 
The senior transfer laboured at the end of the year, with two points against USC in the regular season finale, then 11 against those same Trojans in the Pac-12 Tournament quarters, before thudding out with six points in a loss to Oregon.
 
But Love, who has been on this stage before — a key cog in the North Carolina Tar Heels’ run to the title game in 2022 — will welcome an opponent in the Beach that is 292nd in scoring defense and 287th in 3-point shooting D.
 
At least we know Love isn’t going to be bashful: in those three struggles, he kept chucking, taking at least 10 shots in every game, and finishing a rough 7-for-34, a 20.6% shooting clip.
 
This is the worst three-game scoring stretch of Love’s mostly successful campaign, as he finished fourth in conference scoring at 18.1 points per game. 
 
The second-worst stretch was the opening three games of the year in his new digs. In the fourth game, Love dropped 20 on then-23rd Wisconsin, and proceeded to score 20 or more in 10 of his next 13.

Caleb Love prop: Over 18.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)