March Madness Props and Best Bets: NC State vs Duke Predictions for the Elite Eight

Prop bet #1: Filipowski fills up on boards

Kyle Filipowski has been a problem for opponents all year long. The seven-foot sophomore center has been an efficient score, but has also been dominant in the paint — blocking 1.5 shots and grabbing 8.4 rebounds per game. 

It’s the rebounding that I’m focusing in on for Sunday’s game. Filipowski has grabbed at least nine rebounds in three of his last four games, including in the incredibly slow-paced contest against the Houston Cougars on Friday. 

That run also includes a dominant performance in the last meeting against NC State in the ACC Tournament. In that game, Filipowski scored 28 points and locked down 14 rebounds in a losing effort.

While it’s tempting to see a game like that and look at Filipowski’s scoring prop, that’s not the way I want to go here. Duke’s center has yet to score more than 16 points in March Madness, yet bookmakers are still putting his points total at 15.5 — a dangerously high number for what should be a tightly played game. 

However, like most teams, the Wolfpack don’t have the size to properly challenge Filipowski on missed shots. I’m picking the big man to grab his share of rebounds in tonight’s game.

Kyle Filipowski prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Around the Horne

Senior guard DJ Horne has led NC State in scoring all year long, averaging 16.8 ppg. He had an excellent performance in the ACC Tournament against Duke, scoring 18 on 7 of 13 shooting, and has scored in double digits in each of his three NCAA Tournament games so far this March. In two of those three games he's put up at least 16 points.

Horne has been a critical piece in NC State’s late season success. After losing four straight to end the regular season and seemingly playing themselves out of March Madness contention, the Wolfpack have since won seven straight, starting with earning the ACC Championship. In that time, Horne has averaged 16.7 ppg.

Duke is an excellent defensive squad, but we’re not talking about a team on the level of the Connecticut Huskies, Houston Cougars, or Tennessee Volunteers here. And while neither of these teams likes to run and gun, they didn’t play particularly slowly in either of their meetings this year, playing to totals of 143 points exactly in each game. 

In other words, there will be points scored tonight. The way North Carolina State is playing, the Wolfpack will get their fair share of them, and Horne is the player best suited to take advantage of their opportunities. I’m betting on him to hit the Over on his scoring total tonight.

DJ Horne prop: Over 15.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Roach crushed

Nobody can deny how important Jeremy Roach has been to the Blue Devils this year. The senior guard is averaging 14.0 ppg, and is one of five Duke players scoring in double figures. While Filipowski may be the toughest individual problem for opposing teams to solve, Roach leads a cadre of sharpshooters that can score from anywhere on the court.

Roach has continued his consistent scoring throughout the NCAA Tournament, scoring either 14 or 15 points in each of Duke’s first three games of the tournament.

Much of that scoring has come from the foul line, as Roach has been using penetration rather than concentrating on shooting from beyond the arc. In fact, Roach has only made one 3-pointer in each of his first three tournament games, going 3-for-8 overall from deep.

That’s nothing out of the ordinary for Roach. In his last seven games, Roach has only hit as many as two 3-pointers once against the North Carolina Tar Heels. That includes two previous games against NC State, where Roach hit one three in each game, going 2-for-11 in total.

Bookmakers reasonably can’t set Roach’s 3-point total below 1.5, and they’ve shaded their odds towards the Under. But considering he's moved away from shooting from deep as of late, the added juice isn’t enough to make me shy away. 

Jeremy Roach prop: Under 1.5 made threes (-150 at DraftKings)