March Madness Moneyline Picks for Saturday, April 4

Phil Naessens - Contributor at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst 19+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 3, 2026 , 11:06 AM ET • 4 min read

Our March Madness moneyline picks for the Final Four expect the Fighting Illini and Wolverines to come out on top.

Yaxel Lendeborg (23) controls the ball in the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Yaxel Lendeborg (23) controls the ball in the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers.

It’s been 38 years since one conference put two teams in the national title game.

If the odds are right, the Big Ten Conference could finally do it, with the Illinois Fighting Illini taking on the UConn Huskies and the Michigan Wolverines facing the Arizona Wildcats in Saturday’s Final Four.

I’ve got both my moneyline predictions going the Big Ten’s way, setting up an Illinois vs. Michigan title game on Monday night.

Read on for my March Madness picks for Saturday, April 4. 

March Madness moneyline picks on Saturday, April 4

Matchup Pick
Illinois Illinois
vs
UConn UConn
Illinois -135
Arizona Arizona
vs
Michigan Michigan
Michigan -120

Lines courtesy of bet365.

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Expert March Madness Final Four moneyline picks for Saturday

No. 3 Illinois vs No. 2 UConn: Illinois Illinois (-135)

The Illinois Fighting Illini own the No. 1 offense in the country at 131.8 adjusted efficiency, the third-best offensive rebounding rate, and a turnover rate inside the Top 10 —all while ranking 22nd in 2-point field goal percentage. 

The UConn Huskies' defense is elite, but Illinois has the size advantage across the board and the offensive firepower to overwhelm them, with second-chance points off the glass being the difference. 

The Huskies' experience matters, but this Illinois offense doesn't care and will be playing for the National Championship. 


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No. 1 Michigan vs No. 1 Arizona: Michigan Michigan (-120)

The Michigan Wolverines boast an experience advantage, and I’m betting they don’t flinch against the Arizona Wildcats

Michigan is a solid ball-handling group with elite ball movement (61.4% assist rate), which should create good looks against a stingy Wildcats defense.

The Wolverines are elite defensively. They don’t foul much, which neutralizes Arizona's free-throw machine and one less avenue for the Wildcats to score. 

Michigan typically controls the things that matter in a close game, and its depth will land the Wolverines in the Natty. 

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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