The McNeese State Cowboys may hope to spring a 12-over-5 upset for the second year in a row, but these Vanderbilt Commodores are far better than the usual No. 5 seed.
My McNeese vs. Vanderbilt predictions and these March Madness picks expect a slog of a first-round game albeit one in the favorite’s favor on Thursday, March 19.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt prediction
Who will win McNeese vs Vanderbilt?
Vanderbilt: In four of the last five years, Vanderbilt’s net efficiency rating would have been that of a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That is not to say the Commodores should have such a seed this year, but it is to say the top teams in each region are better than usual, which should dampen any enthusiasm about the McNeese State Cowboys springing this upset.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt best bet: McNeese State Team Total Under 69.5 (-120)
The McNeese State Cowboys had both the best offensive efficiency and the best defensive efficiency in the Southland Conference. They may not have won the regular-season conference title, but they deserved this automatic bid.
But that should all come crumbling down against the Vanderbilt Commodores. McNeese thrives in slowing down a game and turning rebounds and free throws into points. That is more a reflection of Southland deficiencies than McNeese strengths, and the Commodores lack those deficiencies.
Instead, Vanderbilt’s quintet of length should snag rebounds and force an abundance of missed 3-pointers.
COVERS INTEL: Of 365 teams at the Division I level of men’s basketball, McNeese State ranks No. 365 in average possession length when on defense. The Cowboys force opponents to take nearly 20 seconds on each possession, per kenpom.com, a reflection of focused perimeter defense on a team that does not play anyone taller than 6-foot-5 for a majority of minutes. But that then backfires on McNeese, ranking No. 339 in the country in defensive rebounding rate, the natural byproduct of such a small lineup.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay
McNeese State depends on drawing fouls, ranking in the top 100 in the country in free-throw rate. While slowing down the game will cut into those moments, as well as doom this game to its Under, someone in the Vanderbilt rotation will inevitably get into foul trouble.
The most likely candidates are senior frontcourt pieces AK Okereke, Devin McGlockton and Jalen Washington. Should any of them spend added time on the bench, freshman Chandler Bing should see the most uptick in minutes and thus scoring opportunities.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt SGP
- McNeese State Team Total Under 69.5
- Under 150.5
- Chandler Bing Over 3.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Vanderbilt's Fouls and Depth
This is a needle threaded via foul trouble. McGlockton and Okereke foul at the highest rates in the Commodores rotation, while head coach Mary Byington is very conservative relying on players in foul trouble. That should force Duke Miles to score more and put Chandler Bing into more action.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Devin McGlockton Under 8.5 points
- AK Okereke Under 10.5 points
- Duke Miles Over 16.5 points
- Chandler Bing Over 3.5 points
McNeese vs Vanderbilt odds
- Spread: McNeese +11.5 | Vanderbilt -11.5
- Moneyline: McNeese +425 | Vanderbilt -700
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
McNeese vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know
In McNeese’s five outright losses, it fell short of its team total in four, the exception being a 112-71 blowout loss to Michigan in which the Cowboys cleared their total by all of 2.5 points. In the other four games, McNeese fell short of its team total by multiple buckets in three of them. Find more college basketball betting trends for McNeese vs. Vanderbilt.
How to watch McNeese vs Vanderbilt
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Thursday, March 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
McNeese vs Vanderbilt key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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