Whether you live somewhere with legal sports betting or not, Kalshi offers another way to get action down on the Big Dance. And we’re not just talking about which team will win the National Championship.
Prediction market apps, like Kalshi, are helping basketball fans go beyond the March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
You can find all your favorite markets this March Madness, and what’s better: you can trade for a higher return on your investment than what traditional sportsbooks will offer.
Here’s a look at the NCAA Tournament markets available and Kalshi.
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Kalshi March Madness Odds
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Tournament Futures
Prediction markets allow you to back up your bracket by picking the tournament winner. But it doesn’t stop there.
You can also trade on semi-finalists and finalists as well as qualifiers for the Round of 32, Round of 16, and Round of Eight. March Madness MVP trading is also available. What these markets offer is not just a “Yes” contract but also a “No” option.
The Duke Blue Devils are currently the favorites to win the tournament. Kalshi is trading the “Yes” on a Duke championship at 21 cents (21% chance) while the “No” is at 80 cents (80% chance).
Should the Blue Devils earn their “One Shining Moment” in Indianapolis, a $100 “Yes” contract would pay $477. If the Dukies come up short, a $100 risk on “No” would return $125.
Many traditional sportsbooks don’t offer a “No” option on their futures.
Game-to-Game
The Round of 64 is one of the most exciting slates in the sports world, with 32 marquee games packed into Thursday and Friday.
Kalshi has every Round 1 matchup available and is offering trades on outright winners, point spreads, and totals, as well as alternative lines throughout the tournament.
What’s great about prediction market pricing is that you’re not subjected to the standard -110 flat vig (or worse) that sportsbooks ask on their lines.
A contract on North Carolina to cover -2.5 vs. VCU is listed at 50 cents, which would return $100 in profit if a $100 contract is correct. A $100 UNC -2.5 wager at -110 would return just $91 in winnings at a sportsbook.
Tournament Props
Kalshi’s prop market for March Madness is limited only by the traders’ imagination.
You can find a long list of entertaining options and alternative ways to wager on the bracket, including “Will a No. 16 seed beat a No.1?” or the number of upsets in the Round of 64.
One popular market is how many No. 12 seeds will advance to the Round of 32. It seems we get at least one or two No. 12 teams pulling off the opening-round upset over a No. 5 each March.
One or more No. 12’s to advance is priced at 60 cents (returning $160 on a $100 investment), but a shot on all four No. 12 teams to win outright in the Round of 64 is set at four cents (4% chance), promising $2,500 from a $100 risk.
The $1.00 Rule: The Foundation of Prediction Markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, March Madness prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the United States to win the WBC is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Converting Percentages to American Odds
To compare prices of Kalshi's March Madness events to a sportsbook like DraftKings or FanDuel, you must convert the percentage (the price) into American odds.
The Underdog Formula (Price below $0.50)
If the price is less than $0.50, the team is an underdog.
Formula: (100 / Price) * 100 - 100
Example: Let's say UCF is trading at $0.25.
(100 / 25) * 100 - 100 = +300
The Favorite Formula (Price above $0.50)
If the price is higher than $0.50, the team is a favorite.
Formula: (Price / (1 - Price)) * -100
Example: If Florida is trading at $0.63 to win the South.
(63 / (1 - 0.63)) = -170
Here's a breakdown of how milestone prediction market probabilities translate to American odds:
| Kalshi Price | Probability | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| $0.05 | 5% | +1900 |
| $0.10 | 10% | +900 |
| $0.20 | 20% | +400 |
| $0.25 | 25% | +300 |
| $0.40 | 40% | +150 |
| $0.50 | 50% | +100 |
| $0.60 | 60% | -150 |
| $0.75 | 75% | -300 |
| $0.80 | 80% | -400 |
| $0.90 | 90% | -900 |
Why the Prices Differ: The "Vig" vs The Fee
Price display isn't the only way sportsbooks and prediction markets differ. As those new to either process will learn, how each business makes money is also quite different.
Sportsbooks: The Hold
Traditional books build a "margin" or "vig" into their odds. If both sides of a bet are -110, the book is effectively taking a 4.7% cut of the action. Some markets feature less vig, while others, like more obscure prop plays, often see a higher margin due to less certainty and greater perceived risk.
Prediction Markets: The Fee
Exchanges like Kalshi typically charge a transparent transaction fee rather than baking a margin into their event prices. This leads to "tighter" spreads and prices that more accurately reflect the true probability of the outcome.
Prediction Market Pricing: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why do prediction market percentages sometimes add up to more than 100%?
This is known as the "order book spread." Because there is a gap between what sellers want (the "Ask") and what buyers offer (the "Bid"), the aggregate of the "Yes" prices for all teams might sit at 102% or 103%. High-liquidity markets usually stay very close to 100%.
Is $0.50 always equal to +100?
Yes. In both prediction markets and sportsbooks, a 50% probability represents "Even Money" or +100/+100.
Which is more accurate: the sportsbook or the prediction market?
Historically, prediction markets are considered more "efficient" because they allow unlimited stakes from informed traders (the "smart money"), whereas sportsbooks often limit winning players or set lines to balance their own liability. It's not uncommon for sportsbooks to adjust based on information from prediction markets.
What happens to my money if the price goes down after I buy?
Since these are traded markets, the value of your contract fluctuates in real-time. If you buy the Dominican Republic at $0.29 and they fall behind early in the tournament, the price might drop to $0.15. You can choose to sell at a loss or hold the contract until settlement.
