When pondering the first Final Four matchup, there should be some consideration to blanket Unders simply because of the pace of the game. The Illinois Fighting Illini and the UConn Huskies are both in the bottom fifth in the country in pace.
But these Illinois vs. UConn props and March Madness picks do not overcommit to those Unders. Bookmakers are well aware of the pace of this game on Saturday, April 4.
Illinois vs UConn props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Alex Karaban |
Over 13.5 points | +100 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. |
Under 9.5 rebounds | +100 |
 Keaton Wagler |
Over 2.5 threes | +135 |
Prop #1: Alex Karaban Over 13.5 points
This stage will not faze Alex Karaban. He was starting in the Final Four as a freshman in 2023. By 2024, he was going 4-of-6 from the field for 14 points in a win over Alabama in the Final Four, arguably the best player in that win.
Now, he is UConn’s veteran, minutes workhorse, and likely offensive failsafe. Karaban has averaged 17.8 points in this NCAA Tournament, clearing this prop in three of four games.
This game may grind to a crawl. Both coaches may be content to initiate their offenses with only 10 seconds remaining on the shot clock. It may be an evening looking for the first team to crack 60 points.
But Karaban will be the Huskies’ broken glass as shot clocks tick down. He will get looks on a significant chunk of the few possessions. And he could account for a quarter of UConn’s points.
Prop #2: Tarris Reed Jr. Under 9.5 rebounds
In a game with diminished possessions, looking at fewer rebounds is a savvy approach. Furthermore, Illinois has the most efficient offense in the country. It will not miss an abundance of shots. Thus, there will be fewer rebounding opportunities for Tarris Reed Jr.
To top that off, the Illini have grabbed 39.5% of their missed shots this season, the third-highest rate in the country. That will happen when you have the tallest roster in the country, your minutes averaging a height of 6-foot-8.
Illinois can throw bodies at Reed to slow him down. Four different pieces of the Illini rotation stand 6-foot-9 or taller, with two of those taller than Reed’s 6-foot-11.
Pace of play, Illinois’s success, and the Illini's size should all diminish Reed’s rebounding dominance.
Prop #3: Keaton Wagler Over 2.5 threes
Illinois star freshman Keaton Wagler has cashed this prop twice in the NCAA Tournament while shooting 11-of-25 (44%) from deep. Just as notable, he has taken 3s on 25 of his 55 field-goal attempts in the tournament, 45.5% of his shots.
Wagler has not shied from the moment. That shot distribution rate is in line with his showing against quality competition all season, 49.2% of his shots coming from beyond the arc in 18 games against top-50 opponents this year, hitting 43.4% of his 3-pointers in those games.
As good as UConn is, as legitimate as the Huskies’ defense is, as big as these stakes are, there is no reason to think Wagler will do anything but keep shooting.
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