The Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats lock horns for one of the most anticipated Final Four matchups in recent memory.
We’ve searched the board for some of the best props and found three, led by Jaden Bradley.
Read my Michigan vs Arizona predictions and March Madness picks on Saturday, April 4, to find out the rest.
Michigan vs Arizona props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jaden Bradley |
Over 4.5 assists | +110 |
| Motiejus Krivas |
Over 0.5 steals | -140 |
 Nimari Burnett |
Over 1.5 threes | -140 |
Prop #1: Jaden Bradley Over 4.5 assists
Jaden Bradley will have plenty of opportunities off drives when he attracts extra defenders, doing one of the things he does best: facilitating under pressure.
Nobody attacks the rim very efficiently against the Michigan Wolverines, outside an elite few of teams, because they can’t stand up to their physicality. The Arizona Wildcats are one of those exceptions.
So is Duke. And using the Blue Devils as a proxy, they posted over one point per possession on big cuts and rolls in their win against Michigan earlier this year.
The Wildcats can do something similar, and Bradley leads all of those actions. That makes the assist bet a nice accompaniment to my Most Outstanding Player of the tournament bet at +850.
Prop #2: Motiejus Krivas Over 0.5 steals
It was probably inevitable that the eventual fallout of the LJ Cason injury for Michigan would be Yaxel Lendeborg taking on more of a point-forward role, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen.
His usage rate has climbed by 2% from what it was before the Cason injury, and he has posted an assist rate of over 25% in back-to-back games. What does this mean for Motiejus Krivas? In two words: ball pressure.
Arizona won't let Lendeborg run that point-forward role without heating him up. Not when they have one of the best defenders in the country, which is quantified by both metrics (+5.2 DPM) and the eye test. Given the increased opportunities to guard a high-volume ballhandler, I make this closer to -175.
Prop #3: Nimari Burnett Over 1.5 made threes
Michigan will make a concerted effort to take threes in this matchup. There are myriad reasons, but a prevailing one is that Dusty May has to know if Michigan is making them at a decent clip. Arizona is specifically built to be at a (bigger) deficit than most because of how few it takes.
As for why we landed on Nimari Burnett?
The Wildcats force a 95th percentile ball-screen rate and protect the rim at an elite level, taking away easy twos and putting pressure on shooters. With Yaxel likely drawing primary attention on-ball, Burnett becomes a key outlet on swing actions, and he’s gone over this number in three of his last five games.
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