The No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack continue their Cinderella run as they face the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers in the Final Four on Saturday. While nobody expected the Wolfpack to be here a month ago when filling out their March Madness bracket, they've caught fire at the right time and are now just one game away from their first title game since 1983.
But first they'll need to get past a dominant Purdue team that's anchored by the best player in the country in Zach Edey and is out for redemption after getting upset in the first-round last year. It's easy to see why Purdue is hefty nine-point chalk in this spot and while it's never fun to take a big favorite on the moneyline, building it into a same-game parlay can prove profitable.
I break down the March Madness odds for this matchup and bring you my best Final Four picks in a nice SGP for NC State vs Purdue on April 6.
For more analysis, also check out our NC State vs Purdue predictions.
March Madness Final Four same game parlay
Click on pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NC State vs Purdue SGP pick for Final Four
Purdue moneyline
Lance Jones Over 1.5 made threes
DJ Horne Over 16.5 points
Purdue moneyline
I'm wary of backing the Boilermakers on the spread given how well NC State has played over the last month, but I'll gladly take the better team on the moneyline. Keep in mind that based on quality of shots taken and allowed per ShotQualityBets, NC State should have lost five of its last six games.
The Wolfpack have been fortunate to catch some teams on cold-shooting spells but it will be tougher for them to beat a highly-efficient Boilermakers squad that can score at an elite level inside and out.
It's also worth noting the Wolfpack are the seventh double-digit seed to make the Final Four and the other six went 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS.
Lance Jones Over 1.5 threes
The Wolfpack ended the regular season outside the Top 250 in opponent 3-point percentage (35.1%) but opponents are shooting just 28.4% from deep against them since the start of the ACC Tournament.
That said, they were fortunate Marquette and Duke shot poorly in the last two rounds since both teams were getting wide open looks. I'm expecting regression from the Wolfpack when it comes to their 3-point defense and that should mean plenty of threes from the sharp-shooting Boilermakers.
Lance Jones leads Purdue with 76 threes, and while he isn't as accurate as Fletcher Loyer, he takes a far higher volume of shots from long range. Since the start of the New Year, Jones is averaging 2.3 treys per game and has knocked down 2+ threes in 18 of 24 contests.
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D.J. Horne Over 16.5 points
The O/U for Horne's points opened at 15.5, and even with it being steamed up to 16.5 there's still value. The Boilermakers defend extremely well at the rim due to the presence of the 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey. However, Horne rarely attacks the rim and does most of his damage at midrange and the perimeter where Purdue is vulnerable.
Horne is averaging 18.8 ppg over his last 20 games and should have offensive success tonight even if NC State's Cinderella run ends. Even if the Boilermakers build a big lead the Wolfpack will likely have to resort to chucking up threes to play catch up and Horne shoots a sizzling 40.9% from long range.
