College basketball purists are in for a treat on Saturday evening, as the Indiana Hoosiers and Kentucky Wildcats renew one of the best rivalries in the sport when they meet at Rupp Arena.
The two teams haven’t met in 14 years, but the annual intrastate rivalry has been renewed. Storylines abound for both programs, with Mark Pope under serious heat with the Wildcats struggling in the early season.
Can the Hoosiers take advantage and continue their strong start to the season?
Read on for my Indiana vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for December 13.
Indiana vs Kentucky prediction
Indiana vs Kentucky best bet: Tucker DeVries Over 2.5 threes (-115)
All eyes will be on Lamar Wilkerson in this matchup.
Not only did he drop 44 points for the Indiana Hoosiers in their dominant win over Penn State this past Tuesday, but he was expected to join the Kentucky Wildcats from the transfer portal this offseason before choosing to head to Bloomington instead of Lexington.
But that means we’re getting value on the guy being a bit overlooked.
Tucker DeVries is a high-volume outside shooter for this Indiana team. And we’re getting a very kind price for him to make a trio of treys, at -115 odds versus the -130 juice for Wilkerson.
DeVries deferred to Wilkerson a bit against the Nittany Lions, with his six attempts from outside the arc marking just the second time in the last seven games where he’s not fired off at least 10. Those two games are also the only two in that span where he’s made fewer than three.
The Wildcats are struggling with transition defense this season, particularly at locating outside shooters. They’re also allowing a three-point shot rate of 41.3% on the season, ranking 218th in the nation.
Only 35 teams take more outside shots than the Hoosiers, and they rank 36th nationally with a 38.2% success rate. When the Wildcats played against Louisville — who leads the nation in three-point rate — they allowed 40 attempts from downtown, with three different Cardinals making at least three.
This game is likely to be played at a high tempo similar to that Kentucky vs. Louisville matchup. And if DeVries is given that many chances to fire, it’s unlikely he’s not going to bury at least three attempts from outside the arc.
Indiana vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Until Kentucky beats a team with a pulse, I’m not picking them to do so. The Wildcats have lost all three of their games this season against power conference opponents, and that’s not counting the 94-59 drubbing at the hands of Gonzaga. And head coach Mark Pope has won only 11 of his last 25 games against power conference teams.
The Wildcats are shooting just 32.9% from downtown, and are facing an Indiana team ranked sixth in defending inside the arc. Kentucky should win the battle on the glass, but its inability to keep up with Indiana’s outside shooting will be the decider. That’s why Indiana has gone from +180 to win down to +125 as of this morning.
It’s also why I’m expecting the Hoosiers to hold Kentucky to 80 or fewer points. Only Louisville has topped that mark this season against the Hoosiers, and the Cardinals made 13 treys to get to 87 points.
Indiana defends very well inside the arc, despite not having a high blocked-shot rate. The Wildcats also don’t get to the line often, another big reason they’ve averaged just 69.3 points in their four games against Quad 1 opponents this season.
Indiana vs Kentucky SGP
- Tucker DeVries Over 2.5 threes
- Kentucky Wildcats team total Under 80.5
- Indiana Hoosiers moneyline
Our beyond the arc SGP: TEASER
Kentucky allows an assist rate of 59.9%, one of the highest in the nation. Tayton Conerway has an assist rate of nearly 30% this season, and dropped seven dimes against Penn State. He should easily get to four against Kentucky’s struggling transition defense, especially with how well the Hoosiers shoot from outside.
While I’m not a massive fan of Lamar Wilkerson’s juice, he’s still a good choice to get three outside baskets. He hit 10 of them against Penn State in 15 attempts after making just five of 23 in the previous three games, and getting quality looks here should help him stay hot.
Indiana vs Kentucky SGP
- Tucker DeVries Over 2.5 threes
- Kentucky Wildcats team total Under 80.5
- Indiana Hoosiers moneyline
- Tayton Conerway Over 3.5 assists
- Lamar Wilkerson Over 2.5 threes
Indiana vs Kentucky odds
- Spread: Indiana +5.5 (-110) | Kentucky -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +170 | Kentucky -210
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Indiana vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Indiana has hit the 1H game total Under in 10 of its last 14 away games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Indiana vs Kentucky
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Saturday, December 13, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Indiana vs Kentucky key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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