If the UConn Huskies are going to upset the best team college basketball has seen in the 21st century, they will need every ounce of production they can get from Alex Karaban.
The two-time national champion has struggled the last two rounds. Still, one of the winningest players in NCAA Tournament history should not shy away from the moment, or the Michigan Wolverines, on Monday, April 6.
We wrap up our March Madness picks and UConn vs. Michigan predictions with a look at Alex Karaban props below.
Alex Karaban best bet vs Michigan: Under 4.5 rebounds (+122)
As the UConn Huskies inevitably try to slow down the pace tonight against the Michigan Wolverines’ up-tempo approach, fewer possessions will lead to fewer rebound opportunities. That alone argues for the Under on this Alex Karaban prop, simply because his role is not to be chasing rebounds in the first place.
Karaban is a physical player, but his role is to chuck from deep even when he is missing — 2-for-13 from beyond the arc in his last two games — and to play physical defense.
Thus, he has fallen short of this modest prop in his last two games, in three of five NCAA Tournament games, and in eight of his last 16 games.
The stakes may suggest that the tournament-tested veteran could do a bit of everything, but it is more likely he dials up his intensity in his role. Karaban’s shooting may make or break UConn tonight, not his rebounding.
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Alex Karaban same-game parlay
The more Karaban is involved in UConn’s offense, the better the Huskies’ chances are of springing this upset. He has, decisively, the best offensive rating on the UConn roster. That does somewhat come from being prudent in picking his moments, but scaling that kind of efficiency tonight may be the Huskies’ best hope.
Karaban’s shooting has looked ugly the past two games, but as recently as the Sweet Sixteen, he went 3-for-8 from deep while still dishing out three assists. In the first three games of the NCAA Tournament, he hit 11 of 25 shots from deep (44%).
Karaban is more than capable of finding that rhythm tonight and forcing Michigan to worry late into every defensive possession.
Meanwhile, Karaban has managed multiple assists in three straight games and in 12 of his last 13 games. The juice (-180 at bet365) is a bit prohibitive to make this a best bet, but it should be one very much assumed.
Not intended for use in MA.
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