Alabama vs UConn Predictions, Final Four Picks, and Odds for Saturday’s Matchup

The second Final Four matchup pits the defending champs UConn against a high-octane attack in Alabama. Our March Madness picks believe an uptempo style of play will suit the Huskies just fine as they eclipse their team total.

Apr 6, 2024 • 18:00 ET • 4 min read
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The Connecticut Huskies are seeking to become the first back-to-back March Madness bracket champions in 16 years when they head to Glendale, AZ for the Final Four tonight.

Standing in UConn’s way in this evening's semifinal are the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide, who are outsiders in the Final Four odds.

March Madness odds have the Huskies as hefty 11.5-point favorites, with Connecticut not only rolling over foes but blowing point spreads out of the water. The Huskies are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

I break down the college basketball odds for this national semifinal showdown and give my best Final Four picks and predictions for Alabama vs. UConn tonight. Check out Rohit Ponnaiya's Alabama vs. UConn props picks for even more analysis ahead of tip-off.

Alabama vs UConn best odds

Alabama vs UConn picks and predictions

A showdown with Alabama in the desert has prompted oddsmakers to set one of the tallest point totals for the UConn Huskies this season, and with it comes a larger team total for the defending champs.

After staying short of the closing 81.5-point team total in the 77-52 blasting of Illinois in the Elite Eight, books are sticking Connecticut with a team O/U at 85.5 points. It’s a warranted number considering the pace of play and potential for a shootout that the Crimson Tide bring to the table.

Connecticut isn’t known for its pace (315th) but has no qualms about adopting a faster style against opponents that want to get out and run – especially those like Alabama, who aim to out-score not out-defend.

This is the tallest game total UConn has drawn since a 164-point closing number against Arkansas-Pine Bluff (18th fastest tempo) back in December. Connecticut won that game 101-63 and just went Over a hulking team total of 100.5 points. 

The Huskies haven’t played any foes with a gear that comes close to Alabama. Xavier was the highest-ranked Big East team in terms of tempo rating at (31st) and UConn finished with outputs of 80, 87, and 99 points – all surpassing the Huskies’ respective TT for those games against a Musketeers defense far stingier than Alabama.

Connecticut scored 84 points against New Hampshire (25th in tempo) in non-conference play, staying below the closing team total of 91.5 O/U thanks to a 4-for-28 game from 3-point range. But it did surpass the team total of 78.5 O/U against North Carolina (42nd in tempo) with an 87-point performance against a defense ranked No. 8 in the country.

The Huskies are the most adaptable offense in college hoops and take what opponents give it. And when it comes to the Crimson Tide’s defense, only Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny give more.

Alabama has allowed scores of 82, 87, and 96 in three of the four NCAA games, with opponents Clemson, UNC, and Charleston not exactly shooting the lights out in those matchups. Going back to SEC play, the Tide have hemorrhaged buckets with nine of their last 14 foes scoring 85 points or more in regulation.

Game models forecast between 84.5 and 86 points from UConn versus Alabama, which I believe is selling the No. 1 team in offensive efficiency short and giving too much credit to a bad Bama defense. 

The pace of play alone will give the Huskies a surplus of shot attempts. When you factor in that Alabama will be the third softest defense UConn has faced since Big East play started (ahead of Stetson and DePaul), my projection calls for 91-plus from Connecticut on Saturday night.

Some books have UConn’s team total as high as 86.5 (Over -120) but you can find 85.5 Over -110 at Pinnacle.

My best bet: UConn team total Over 85.5 (-110 at Pinnacle)

Alabama vs UConn same-game parlay

UConn team total Over 86.5

Mark Sears Over 2.5 threes

Tristen Newton Over 6.5 rebounds

While this team total isn’t as low as our “best bet”, my forecast is 90-plus points for UConn in the Final Four. The Huskies will get whatever they want against the Tide.
Given the game script, Alabama will be playing from behind. That means Alabama will press even harder from beyond the arc. Mark Sears has shot a ton of triples in the tournament and has made three or more in three of four NCAA games.
An uptick in tempo and plenty of field goal attempts means more rebounds. With Bama leaning into the triples, we’ll see longer rebounds coming off. Those will make their way to guards like Newton, who is forecasted for more than seven boards.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Alabama vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Following the completion of the Elite Eight, oddsmakers opened UConn as short as -10.5 for this Final Four matchup with Alabama. It didn’t take long for Huskies action to push that spread as high as -12.5 at some books before the market settled in at Connecticut -11.5.

  • As mentioned, UConn has been a moneymaker for those not afraid to lay the lumber with the defending champs. The Huskies have cruised in their first four games of the NCAA Tournament, going 4-0 ATS and winning those contests by a collective 111 points.

  • Alabama has also won and covered in all four Big Dance outings. The Crimson Tide are underdogs for just the 10th time this season and while they did cover as 4.5-point pups versus UNC in the Sweet 16, Bama is only 3-6 ATS as an underdog on the season.

  • The total for this semifinal opened at 161.5 points and has since slimmed as low as 160 points Over/Under. Connecticut’s defense has helped the Under come through in all four tournament games, with UConn on a 3-10 O/U run in its last 13 contests overall. Alabama is one of the best Over bets in the country at 27-9 O/U, including a 3-1 O/U clip in the NCAA.

  • Covers Consensus data shows 56% of early picks taking the points with Alabama in the Final Four, as of Tuesday. As for the total, 67% of picks are playing the Over between the Huskies and Crimson Tide.

Alabama vs UConn betting trend to know

Connecticut has gone Over its Team Total in 13 of its last 22 games (+3.95 Units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. UConn.

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Alabama vs UConn game info

Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Date: Saturday, April 6, 2024
Tip-off: 9:49 p.m. ET

Alabama vs UConn key injuries

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