Call it luck.
Call it the Dan Hurley Effect.
Call it the heart of a champion.
Whatever it is, it has the UConn Huskies one win away from a spot in the National Championship for the third time in four years. Connecticut is a 2-point underdog against the Illinois Fighting Illini in tonight's Final Four semifinal.
Basketball bettors have had a week to dissect this matchup, pulling apart what really makes these teams tick and how they can impose their will over the other.
I’m taking the points with the Huskies, and my March Madness picks give you three reasons why UConn will win its Final Four pairing on Saturday, April 4.
Motion sickness
The Connecticut offense is a throwback of sorts, at least when compared to the matchup hunting iso-heavy schemes of modern hoops. The Huskies run a classic motion playbook, which means a lot of action away from the ball.
Connecticut is setting hard screens and running defenders around, constantly clashing with those picks. The Huskies are patient on offense and often dig deep into the shot clock, which takes its toll on opponents.
Although Illinois has a big lineup that can cover a lot of ground, it hasn’t faced many offenses like UConn’s. The Huskies can stretch out those bigs and force them to chase cutters.
That won’t leave much fuel in the tank for those crucial dying minutes.
Window cleaning
A big part of the Illini’s scoring is crashing the offensive glass and setting up second-chance points. Illinois’ big men play on the perimeter, which has them attacking the boards from outside — typically a tougher task to box out.
Connecticut, however, is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country. The Huskies sit 21st in total rebound rate and limit foes to only eight offensive rebounds per outing. That shrinks opponents’ second-chance points to just 9.8 per game.
If UConn is going to advance to the title game, it needs to check this potent Illinois offense to one shot per possession.
Tarris Reed
The NCAA Tournament has showcased some incredible talent, but it’s tough to find anyone playing better than UConn center Tarris Reed right now.
Reed is the beating heart of this Huskies’ run, averaging almost 22 points and 13.5 rebounds during the Big Dance.
But the numbers don’t do his efforts justice.
Not only is Reed producing, but he’s dunking on doubters who thought the interior defenses of Michigan State and Duke would be too much. That’s two of the toughest frontcourts in the country, and Reed ripped them a new one.
We’re getting the same statement for this matchup with Illinois. The Fighting Illini are large and pad the paint with one of the better 2-point defenses. On the year, they’ve held opponents to the seventh-lowest shooting efficiency while allowing the 59th-fewest points in the paint.
If Reed can crack that Illinois interior and draw fouls on an otherwise cautious Illini team, it’s going to force Illinois into a tough place. The forwards don’t often get into foul trouble, and that would throw Brad Underwood’s rotation into disarray.
On top of scoring inside, Reed’s rebounding must be at peak performance. As mentioned, Illinois is depending on second-chance buckets. Keeping it away from the offensive glass cuts the head off that snake.
