Louisville heads to SMU looking to keep its offensive rhythm intact, and the matchup sets up cleanly for the Cardinals’ primary creator.
Here’s why I’m backing Mikel Brown to fill up the assist column in my Louisville vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 17.
Louisville vs SMU prediction
Louisville vs SMU best bet: Mikel Brown Over 5.5 assists (-155)
SMU’s defense is a great fit for Brown’s playmaking. Louisville is generating 1.09 points per possession on attack-and-kick actions and 1.44 on bigs cutting the basket.
Mikel Brown has been in complete control for the last month and is the primary initiator of these actions. SMU allows 0.90 PPP on attack-and-kick and is even worse at defending bigs cutting. This opens many avenues for Brown.
When Brown gets two feet in the paint, the reads are simple, and he’s done that a lot lately. I’m betting on a poor defensive structure allowing him to drop six dimes.
Louisville vs SMU same-game parlay
My same-game parlay is a direct correlation of my best bet: Mikel Brown distributing is usually a good thing for everyone involved in a Louisville jersey.
If Brown is living in the paint and clearing 6+ assists, that likely means Sananda Fru is converting on those big cut-and-roll and dump-off looks where Louisville is scoring 1.44 points per possession.
SMU has struggled to contain interior actions, so Brown facilitating and Fru finishing naturally pair with a Louisville win.
Louisville vs SMU SGP
- Mikel Brown Over 5.5 assists
- Sananda Fru Over 9.5 points
- Louisville moneyline
Our beyond the arc SGP: All about the Cardinals
I went fully in on the Cardinals' narrative for our longshot, adding Louisville’s sniper Isaac McKneely to knock down a trio of threes and Louisville win the 1H too.
Pat Kelsey has been dominant in two matchups against SMU and Andy Enfield, winning last year 98-73 in this spot. A big part of that is the weaknesses of the Mustangs' defense, which naturally complement Louisville’s strengths.
Again, if Mikel Brown is touching paint, there will be plenty of spray-out opportunities. McKneely is the one most likely to see increased volume because of that.
Louisville vs SMU SGP
- Mikel Brown Over 5.5 assists
- Sanadru Fru Over 9.5 points
- Louisville moneyline
- Louisville 1H moneyline
- Isaac McKneely Over 2.5 threes
Louisville vs SMU odds
- Spread: Louisville -4 (-110) | SMU +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville -185 | SMU +155
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 (-110)
Louisville vs SMU betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. SMU.
How to watch Louisville vs SMU
| Location | Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Louisville vs SMU key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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