Duke and the Florida State Seminoles will meet in the ACC Tournament, with things getting a little uncertain for the Blue Devils.
The favorites be without both Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, stripping them of their starting point guard and rim-running center.
My Duke vs. Florida State predictions and college basketball picks break down why Cameron Boozer will be the one to step up on Thursday, March 12.
Florida State vs Duke prediction
Florida State vs Duke best bet
Florida State vs Duke best bet: Cameron Boozer Over 4.5 assists (-135)
Without Foster and Ngongba, Cameron Boozer becomes Duke's primary offensive hub. That's enough to give this a look, but then you consider the matchup.
Florida State’s defense, even an improved one, has struggled to defend pick-and-pop actions, allowing over a point per possession.
Boozer will be the main facilitator there and will command doubles off those actions. I suspect you’ll see him slice up the Seminoles with either those actions or kicking out to the perimeter off low-post doubles to Dame Sarr or Isaiah Evans. This is too low a threshold.
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Florida State vs Duke same-game parlay
Dame Sarr feels forgotten, and I’ll take advantage of that. The likely one-and-done wing has shot over 40% from three over the last five games and really should see a nice matchup here.
Isaiah Evans will get his off Boozer’s creation, but he’ll also get a ton more defensive attention. That should open up some scoring opportunities for Sarr.
Florida State vs Duke SGP
- Cameron Boozer Over 4.5 assists
- Dame Sarr Over 8.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Sarry for party rockin
Sarr has started to shoot better from deep, and again, he’ll benefit from the pick-and-pop issues. The Under pairs naturally since both teams lose pace without Foster pushing tempo.
Florida State vs Duke SGP
- Cameron Boozer Over 4.5 assists
- Dame Sarr Over 8.5 points
- Dame Sarr Over 1.5 threes
- Under 149.5
Florida State vs Duke odds
- Spread: Florida State +16.5 | Duke -16.5
- Moneyline: Florida State +1100 | Duke -2200
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 | Under 149.5
Florida State vs Duke betting trend to know
Duke has covered the first-half spread in 10 of its last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Duke.
How to watch Florida State vs Duke
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Thursday, March 12, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida State vs Duke key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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