Kansas vs Kansas State Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's College Basketball Game

Krest's prediction: Expect the Jayhawks to win convincingly tonight.

Shawn Krest - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Shawn Krest • Betting Analyst
Jan 24, 2026 • 12:07 ET • 4 min read

NCAAB

Match starts: 5 hrs
KSU
42 %
KU
58 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Kansas -4.5 (-110) Kansas -4.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Tre White of the Kansas Jayhawks CBB
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Tre White of the Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas Jayhawks coach Bill Self is expected to be on the sideline again when his team faces the cross-state rival Kansas State Wildcats. 

The Hall of Fame coach was hospitalized with chest pains and missed Monday's game. Kansas State isn't as lucky, with two double-figure scorers expected to miss the game.

The Jayhawks have won three straight, covering them all. The Wildcats have lost five of six and have won just one of their last seven ATS.

My Kansas at Kansas State predictions and college basketball picks call for the Jayhawks to roll as the road favorite on Saturday, January 24.

Kansas vs Kansas State prediction

Kansas vs Kansas State best bet: Kansas -4.5 (-110)

While the Kansas Jayhawks get Bill Self back after assistant Jacque Vaughn had to handle a win over Colorado, the Kansas State Wildcats will need to make up with a short staff on the floor. 

Abdi Bashir Jr., the Wildcats' second-leading scorer, had surgery on a stress fracture in his foot this week and is out at least a month.

Already down Bashir's 13.2 points per game, K-State will also likely be without 10.2-point scorer Khamari McGriff, who is day-to-day with an undisclosed problem.

Facing Kansas' defense, which ranks in or near the top 10 in most analytics categories, is tough enough without missing two key weapons.

The Jayhawks have held their last three opponents to under 70 points and under 50% from the field.

Kansas State's defense could be the bigger factor in the outcome.

The Wildcats play fast — they post the 14th-quickest tempo in the country, but they've found it hard to control opposing offenses at that pace in Big 12 play. 

Their last five opponents have combined to hit 56% of their two-point shot attempts. The last three have hit 37% of their three-pointers.

Both figures are significantly higher than Kansas State's defense's season averages, which were already middle of the pack.

Look for the Jayhawks to pull away from Kansas State and cruise to a road cover.

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Kansas vs Kansas State same-game parlay

Kansas State has gone Under its last three games and six of the last 10, but don't fall for the trap. This is the lowest Over/Under points cutoff they've faced over that span.

They've had five cutoffs in the 170s — and gone over two of them — and four in the 160s — and gone over two. The Wildcats seem determined to play fast, even if it's not in their best interests. Kansas plays slower but has shown it can also win a shootout, like the 104-101 win over TCU three weeks ago.

P.J. Haggerty is Kansas State's leading scorer. With Bashir out, the plan seems to be for him to take on more of a scoring load. Kansas' interior and perimeter defenses are both ranked about 200 spots higher than Utah's, so don't expect him to get anywhere near as many opportunities.

Kansas vs Kansas State SGP

  • Kansas -4.5
  • Over 158.5
  • P.J. Haggerty Under 23.5 points

Our beyond the arc SGP: Dishing!

With Bashir's two-plus assists out and Haggerty (4.5 assists) hunting his shot, look for Nate Johnson to take more of a role running the offense.

Johnson averages 4.1 assists this season and has 21 in the last three games.

Kansas vs Kansas State SGP

  • Kansas -4.5
  • Over 158.5
  • P.J. Haggerty Under 23.5 points
  • Nate Johnson Over 3.5 assists

Kansas vs Kansas State odds

  • Spread: Kansas -4.5 (-110) | Kansas State +4.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Kansas -190 | Kansas State +165
  • Over/Under: Over 161 (-110) | Under 161 (-110)

Kansas vs Kansas State betting trend to know

Kansas has hit the game total Over in eight of its last 14 away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Kansas State.

How to watch Kansas vs Kansas State

Location Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS
Date Saturday, January 24, 2026
Tip-off 8:00 p.m. ET
TV FOX

Kansas vs Kansas State key injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst

Since quitting his job as bank assistant vice-president in 2000, Shawn has covered Final Fours, Super Bowls, World Series games and title fights in boxing and UFC. His work has appeared on ESPN, MLB.com, Sports Illustrated and dozens of other outlets. His book, Baseball Meat Market was published in 2018. He lives in North Carolina with his dog Toby, eight turtles, and wife.

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