Kansas State vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Disu Does Damage From Deep

Despite more attempts of late, Dylan Disu's insane efficiency from beyond the arc hasn't wavered with at least two treys in four straight games. Our Kansas State vs. Texas betting picks expect more of the same tonight.

Feb 19, 2024 • 12:36 ET • 4 min read
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Dylan Disu Texas Longhorns Big 12 college basketball
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Two teams looking to gain some ground in the Big 12 standings square off at the Moody Center on Monday night as the Kansas State Wildcats visit the Texas Longhorns.

Both the Wildcats and Longhorns are in danger of finishing in the bottom four of the regular season standings, which would come with the unwanted “reward” of having to win five games in five days to win the conference tournament.

According to the college basketball odds, the Longhorns are 8.5-point favorites and the total resides at 140.5. It’s the player prop market I have my sight set on for this President’s Day clash. 

In particular, I’ll examine whether I expect Texas forward Dylan Disu’s blistering shooting stretch to continue. Check out our college basketball picks for Kansas State vs. Texas on Monday, February 19.

Kansas State vs Texas best odds

Kansas State vs Texas picks and predictions

It’s safe to say the Kansas State Wildcats are in the midst of a rough patch after dropping six of their last seven games. Jerome Tang’s squad is in the unenviable position of needing to get over its season-long road woes to snap the cold spell — the Wildcats have just two road victories in seven chances. 

The NCAA Tournament is a long shot at this point, but the chances for resume-boosting wins are plentiful in the country’s toughest conference so never say never. Tang is adamant that his team isn’t folding just yet. “There’s nobody in that locker room that’s quitting. There’s nobody in the locker room that’s panicking.”

The Wildcats have slipped to 73rd overall in KenPom, 44 spots lower than their opponent on President’s Day. The Texas Longhorns could also use a win, however, after going just 2-4 in their last six games. 

Rodney Terry’s squad is still firmly in the dance according to most projections — Bracket Matrix lists them as a No. 8 seed —  but any win helps, and avoiding the bottom four of the conference standings certainly would be nice come time for the Big 12 Tournament. 

Texas was Houston’s latest victim in an 82-61 loss on Saturday at the Fertitta Center. The Longhorns will be glad to return home as they’re 11-4 at the Moody Center this season. 

I’m centering my attention on the player prop market for Monday night’s best bet. To be more precise, I’m going to play Texas forward Dylan Disu to go over his made threes prop of 1.5 at juicy +130 odds. 

To call Disu a sniper from long distance would perhaps be unfair to his sharpshooting skills. He’s an utter dead-eye from long range, canning 55.9% of threes on the year. If that sounds like an unbelievably high percentage, that’s because it is — he leads the nation in that statistic. If that figure isn’t high enough, consider he’s shooting 60.6% from behind the arc at home. 

The fifth-year senior has dazzled me in past seasons with his incredible touch on floaters in the midrange. He’s capitalized on that special feathery touch by expanding his range this season. After attempting just 0.9 threes per game last year, he’s upped that to number 3.7 this year to devastating results. 

It seems like those number of attempts will only go up as Disu becomes more comfortable with matching his shot selection to his skillset. That’s been evident on paper — after attempting one or fewer 3-pointers in half of his first eight games, he hasn’t done so in any of his last eight. 

He’s averaged 5.4 attempts across his last five games, continuing to feel more secure with hoisting away from distance. Even if we say his incredible 3-point percentage is likely for regression, the odds still seem off on this prop. If he was a 40% shooter from deep instead of hitting at 55.9% — a steep drop-off, by all accounts — he’d still be averaging 2.16 made threes per game at his newfound volume. 

Kansas State has held opponents to just 31.5% from behind the arc this season, but that number seems due for regression. The Wildcats have been open to letting teams fly from distance, ranking 228th in  attempts allowed per game (22.6). Eventually, that volume will turn into more made threes, especially when facing a deadly player like Disu. 

My best bet: Dylan Disu Over 1.5 made threes (+130 at DraftKings)

Kansas State vs Texas same-game parlay

Dylan Disu Over 1.5 made threes

Kansas State +8.5

I fancy Disu’s made threes prop regardless of game script. In addition, I'll take Kansas State plus the points. 

I get it — it’s really difficult to win on the road, especially in this conference. Texas is the better team analytically and is playing at home, where it has been good, while Kansas State has been poor on the road.

The thing is, we aren’t talking about winning straight up. This is a large spread in my opinion, especially for a Longhorns team that is a miserable 9-16 ATS. I’ll take the points with this Wildcats team that plays sound defense (23rd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom).

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Kansas State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

Texas opened -9 but was bet down to -8.5 across the board at the time of this writing. The total, meanwhile, opened at 139.5 but currently sits at 140.5. Be sure to track all further fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool

Texas is undeniably a talented team and it does a lot of things well. The Longhorns rank 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 59th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and seemingly possess the talent and potential to finish higher on both ends of the court. 

Why aren’t they performing up to their ability? The simple answer would be the coach. I understand why Terry was hired after last year’s run to the Elite Eight, but I still need to see more questions answered before becoming a believer. 

The Longhorns shoot the cover off the ball from downtown (37.7% on threes) and finish well at the rim (18th in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics). Those are two signs that would indicate this should be an elite offense. While it’s still an undeniably effective one, it’s evident that there’s room for even more. 

The Longhorns haven’t maximized their strengths, ranking just 303rd in percentage of shots at the rim (34.1%) and 248th in percentage of shots from behind the arc (34.9%). Depending on how harsh the critic is, this could either be described as “confusing” or “nonsensical”.

I’m more inclined to be in the latter camp. A few tweaks and it’s easy to see this team making a deep tournament run, but the proof hasn’t been in the pudding this year. This makes it difficult for me to lay the points with this Longhorns team despite the talent differential. They’re just 9-16 ATS this year and not maximizing their strengths is a big reason for that record. 

As for the total, I prefer the Under as neither team plays with much pace. Texas checks in at 239th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric while Kansas State isn’t far ahead at 220th. 

The Wildcats are deplorably inefficient offensively, ranking 164th in adjusted offensive efficiency while its two leading scorers, Cam Carter and Tylor Perry, combine to shoot just 37.9% from the floor on high volume (24.8 shot attempts per game).

Kansas State vs Texas betting trend to know

Dylan Disu has made at least two threes in each of his last four games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Texas.

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Kansas State vs Texas game info

Location: Moody Center, Austin, TX
Date: Monday, February 19, 2024
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

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