The Kansas Jayhawks will welcome the Iowa State Cyclones to Lawrence, KS for an exciting Big 12 matchup.
Kansas watched an eight-game winning streak come to an end against Texas Tech on Saturday. For the first time this season, Kansas struggled offensively, but are back home to take on an Iowa State team that has lost two of their last three games.
However, Iowa State already defeated Texas Tech 51-47 this season. Does that mean we’ll see a low amount of points tonight? Here are our picks and predictions for the Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Kansas.
Iowa State vs Kansas odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Kansas Jayhawks opened as a 12.5-point favorite against Iowa State. However, Kansas could be found as low as -11 at a couple of sportsbooks right now with line movement headed in Iowa State’s favor.
The total hasn’t moved since opening at 142, although a couple of books are starting to trend down to 141.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Iowa State vs Kansas predictions
Predictions made on 1/11/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Iowa State vs Kansas game info
• Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
• Date: Tuesday, January 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+
Iowa State at Kansas betting preview
Injuries
Iowa State: Jaden Walker G (Questionable).
Kansas: Bob Pettiford G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Cyclones are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa State vs. Kansas.
Iowa State vs Kansas picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
In a game between two ranked opponents, it just doesn’t seem right that one team is favored by 11.5 points.
Kansas is, by far, the better team in comparison to Iowa State. However, Iowa State has had one helluva turnaround, going 13-2 in its first 15 games of the season after a dreadful campaign last season. The Cyclones deserve some more respect here.
The Cyclones have held opponents to a 44.4% effective field goal percentage while forcing 26% turnovers on the season. Iowa State has also been able to limit offensive rebounds to just 26.6% for opponents this season and that’s crucial knowing that Iowa State has only allowed 26.2% of threes to fall this season.
The defensive matchup against Kansas will be interesting. Kansas is one of the best offenses in the nation, with an effective field goal percentage of 57%. The Jayhawks are hitting 37.3% from long range and 57.5% from inside the arc while dominating the offensive glass and getting to the line at a high rate.
On the other hand, Kansas has played exceptional defense this season as well, limiting teams to 31.6% from downtown and 49.7% from inside the arc.
One area where Iowa State will struggle is turnovers. The Cyclones have turned the ball over 20.6% of the time while Kansas has forced 21.8% of turnovers on the season. But despite the turnovers, Iowa State can still shoot themselves in any game, as they’ve hit 34.3% from downtown and 51.6% from inside the arc.
I’ll grab Iowa State and the points on the road.
Prediction: Iowa State +11.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Kansas and Iowa State have both played terrific defense all year. Iowa State has allowed just 58.4 points per game while Kansas has allowed 67.2 points per game.
We saw what good defenses can do against Kansas. Kansas struggled against Texas Tech over the weekend, scoring just 67 points in defeat.
We also saw Iowa State struggle against that same Texas Tech defense, scoring just 51 points in a 51-47 win.
Therefore, I like the Under in this matchup. Both defenses should bring it and if one offense struggles from the floor, the Under will hit.
Prediction: Under 142 (-110)
Best bet
The Under is really appealing in this game. Iowa State isn’t really known for offense and while they’ve been shooting the ball at a solid rate, it’s the defense that's played the biggest role in their early-season success.
Meanwhile, Kansas has looked great defensively and is above average in every category defensively, whether it’s effective field goal percentage, turnovers, limiting offensive rebounds or limiting teams at the line.
I’ll take the Under as the best bet in this game.
Pick: Under 142 (-110)
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