The 8th-ranked Houston Cougars open conference play rolling, looking for a seventh straight win overall as they visit the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincy hasn’t strung together back-to-back wins over its last nine games, part of the reason they’re 7-point home ‘dogs in the college basketball odds.
With little juice on the Cougs winning outright, my Houston vs Cincinnati prediction and free college basketball picks have this turning into a low-scoring rock fight.
Houston vs Cincinnati prediction
Houston vs Cincinnati best bet: Under 135.5 (-110)
Houston has just one loss on the year, and they’re powered, as usual, by a powerful defense that smothers the opposition.
The Cougars wrapped up their non-conference slate with a 69-60 win over Middle Tennessee, a game that head coach Kelvin Sampson thought they were outplayed in.
And while that may be a wakeup call to his troops, it might also be the team looking ahead to Cincinnati.
Houston leads the Big 12 in scoring defense and sits third nationally at 60 points per game, and ranks inside the Top 30 in field goal defense (38.8%) and Top 40 in 3-point shooting defense (29%).
It’s that defense that’s propping up the offense, which sits 13th in the Big 12 in scoring, while ranking second last in both field goal and 3-point shooting in the conference.
Their company down there? The Cincinnati Bearcats, who rank dead last in the Big 12 in scoring (75.8 points), field goal shooting, and 3-point shooting.
Like the Cougars, the Bearcats also have a tough defense, allowing just 65.5 points per game, but they’ve played a far lighter slate, with KenPom ranking their strength of schedule at 253rd.
Houston has owned this head-to-head, winning 10 straight games, but has failed to cover the spread in four of the last five, so we’re going to target the total, which has gone Under in six of the last eight meetings.
The Bearcats have gone Under in their last four, but this is by far the most menacing defense they will have seen all year, and scoring the ball is going to be a chore.
Saturday’s 135-point scoring line matches the third-highest total between these teams in the last 10 games, so there’s wiggle room there, too.
Houston vs Cincinnati same-game parlay
Baba Miller is leading the Big 12 in rebounding and ranks fourth in the nation at 11.5 rebounds per game. The FAU transfer is coming off a season-best 21 boards against Lipscomb and has pulled down at least 10 boards in eight of 11 games this year.
Emmanuel Sharp leads Houston in scoring at 17 points per game, but left in the second half of the last game against Middle Tennessee after taking a hard fall, finishing with just 10 points.
He’s a go for Saturday, and he’s got a generous 14.5 scoring line — a number he’s topped in six of the last nine games.
Houston vs Cincinnati SGP
- Under 135 points
- Baba Miller Over 9.5 rebounds
- Emmanuel Sharp Over 14.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Peak efficiency
Senior Milos Uzan shows up for big games, scoring at least 11 points in all three games against ranked teams. Cincinnati isn’t ranked, but the Big 12 opener certainly constitutes a big game.
Apart from having one of the best names in college hoops, Jizzle James is also an important offensive piece for Cincinnati.
He’ll be making his fourth appearance this year, and twice he’s breezed by his 11.5 scoring line, missing the over by a bucket in the other.
Houston vs Cincinnati SGP
- Under 135 points
- Baba Miller Over 9.5 rebounds
- Emmanuel Sharp Over 14.5 points
- Milos Uzan Over 10.5 points
- Jizzle James Over 11.5 points
Houston vs Cincinnati odds
- Spread: Houston -7 | Cincinnati +7
- Moneyline: Houston -311 | Cincinnati +250
- Over/Under: Over 135 | Under 135
Houston vs Cincinnati betting trend to know
The Cougars are 4-1-0 against the spread in their last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Cincinnati.
How to watch Houston vs Cincinnati
| Location | Fifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Saturday, January 3, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Houston vs Cincinnati key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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