Miami's scoring Unders lead our Heat vs. Warriors computer picks, while Golden State offers a mix of Overs and Unders.
We've compared Covers' player projections with the listed totals to break down eight NBA picks for Thursday, Nov. 5.
Heat vs Warriors computer picks
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Heat |
 Warriors |
|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo Under 20 points 46% |
Draymond Green 5+ points 63% |
| Davion Mitchell Under 15 points 64% |
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 18.5 points 54% |
| Klay Thompson Under 15 points 62% |
Georges Niang 5+ points 73% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 11.5 rebounds 53% |
Stephen Curry 4+ rebounds 52% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Heat computer picks
Bam Adebayo Under 20 points (46%)
Projection: 17.47 points
Bam Adebayo scored 35 points on 70% shooting Wednesday, but he has finished below this 21.5-point threshold in five of eight games this season.
His 18.6-point season average and 17.47-point projection both support a quieter outing, with the forecast leaving more than four points of room beneath the line.
Davion Mitchell Under 15 points (64%)
Projection: 11.37 points
Davion Mitchell finished with 11 points and 10 assists Wednesday despite playing more than 43 minutes, showing how a heavy workload can translate into playmaking without a big scoring night.
The model projects 11.37 points, and his 15 free-throw attempts across eight games leave him little scoring from the line to offset a quiet shooting performance.
Klay Thompson Under 15 points (62%)
Projection: 11.23 points
Klay Thompson has taken 73 of his 88 shots from 3-point range and attempted just two free throws this season, leaving his scoring heavily dependent on his jumper.
That shot profile offers a path to the 11.23-point forecast if he cools off, although totals of 25, 19, and 30 in his last three games make this a call for a sharp reversal of recent form.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 12 rebounds (53%)
Projection: 10.90 rebounds
Golden State has allowed 41.2 rebounds per game against a league average of 44.3, offering matchup support for Giannis Antetokounmpo's Under.
His 10.90-rebound projection still requires a decline after five consecutive games with at least 12 boards, making this a modest lean at the 11.5 threshold.
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Warriors computer picks
Draymond Green 5+ points (63%)
Projection: 7.94 points
Draymond Green's 7.94-point forecast sits closer to his 8.4-point average from last season, with only six points needed to clear this line.
He has scored five or fewer in each of his six appearances this season, however, so this Over depends on the improvement in production anticipated by the model.
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 20 points (54%)
Projection: 15.81 points
Yaxel Lendeborg followed Sunday's 37-point outburst with 16 points on 10 shots Monday, while Stephen Curry took 21 attempts in that game.
A similar distribution of shots would fit the more modest scoring night anticipated by the model, whose 15.81-point forecast sits 2.69 points below this line.
Georges Niang 5+ points (73%)
Projection: 8.91 points
Georges Niang has scored 11 and 13 points in two of his last three games while playing between 18 and 22 minutes in each of those three outings.
That production shows he can clear this number within his recent workload, and the 8.91-point forecast supports an eight-point target without requiring a major increase in minutes.
Stephen Curry 4+ rebounds (52%)
Projection: 4.21 rebounds
Stephen Curry has collected eight, four, and six rebounds in his last three appearances, playing more than 30 minutes in each. That workload has produced three consecutive games above this threshold, and the 4.21-rebound projection supports a four-board target without requiring him to repeat his best recent totals.
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