The Auburn Tigers host the Georgia Bulldogs in SEC basketball action on Tuesday night. The Tigers are in fourth place in the SEC standings, but the Bulldogs have been competitive in Mike White's first year as head coach, and won by double-digits when these teams met up in Athens last month.
Oddsmakers expect a far different result this time around, as college basketball odds opened with the Tigers as 12.5-point favorites before shortening to -11.5. Here are my best free Auburn vs Georgia picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 1.
Georgia vs Auburn best odds
Georgia vs Auburn picks and predictions
When these teams faced off less than a month ago, the Over/Under was installed at just 136. While they went above that number and finished with 140 points, that's still below the total of 141.5 for today's rematch.
Keep in mind that the previous meeting had a few outliers which will likely see a regression to the mean. Both teams turned the ball over 10 times, which was far better ball security than they usually have. Auburn averages 13.2 turnovers per game, and Georgia averages 13.9.
The Tigers also had a modest four blocks in that contest, but average a whopping 7.9 bpg at home, and the Bulldogs typically have their shots blocked at a high rate. In addition, the Bulldogs took 32 free-throw attempts. While they should still get sent to the line a fair bit (more on that below), that number will likely dip.
Both of these squads have been significantly better on defense than offense. Auburn ranks sixth in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage (43.6%) while Georgia ranks 43rd (46.7%). Meanwhile, the Tigers are 231st in effective field goal percentage (49.5%) while the Bulldogs are just 281st (48.2%).
With both teams struggling with their offensive efficiency, and Auburn boasting a stingy defense, play the Under.
My best bet: Under 141.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Georgia vs Auburn spread analysis
Auburn is coming off an 80-77 road loss to West Virginia in the Big 12/SEC challenge, and previously lost 79-63 at home to Texas A&M. Before that two-game skid, the Tigers had gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as they look to return to the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in the last five tourneys.
Georgia is fresh off an overtime victory over South Carolina at home, but failed to cover the spread as a 10.5-point fave. They went 0-3 SU and ATS in their previous three games.
The Bulldogs are still having a transformational season under White, who has already led them to more than twice as many overall wins as last year. After going a pathetic 1-17 in SEC play last season, the Bulldogs are 4-4 this year. Their biggest win came on Jan. 4, when they beat Auburn, 76-64.
Guard Wendell Green Jr. leads Auburn with 13.6 points and 4.3 assists per game, but he also averages 3.1 turnovers per game and shoots just 37.3% from the field. Center Johni Broome adds 13.4 ppg while ranking second in the SEC in rebounds (8.5) and third in blocks (2.6) per game.
Georgia has just two players averaging more than 8.0 ppg in point guard Terry Roberts (15.4 ppg, 4.4 apg) and shooting guard Kario Oquendo (13.1 ppg). Like Green, Roberts is also inefficient, and has a 38.7 FG% with 3.1 turnovers per game.
One area where the Tigers do struggle on defense is that they foul at a high rate, sending opponents to the charity stripe for 21.1 free-throw attempts per game. They rank outside the Top 300 schools in the country in that department.
The Bulldogs do a good job of getting to the line, and that was a big factor in their win against Auburn last month, when they went 22-of-32 on free throws.
Georgia vs Auburn Over/Under analysis
Broome anchors a defense that ranks 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Tigers are second in the country in block rate (10.5%), and hold opponents to 64.2 ppg.
The Bulldogs have been playing far better on defense under White. Last season, they were just 318th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, but are currently 81st.
Another reason to like the Under in this game is that both teams are unlikely to have success from long range.
The Tigers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, knocking down just 29.5% of shots from beyond the arc. They also limit foes to the third-lowest 3-point percentage (26.6%). The Bulldogs defend well on the perimeter, and rank 22nd with an opponent 3-point percentage of 29.6%.
Georgia vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Georgia vs. Auburn.
Georgia vs Auburn game info
|Location:||Neville Arena, Auburn, AL|
|Date:||Wednesday, February 1, 2023|
|Tip-off:||7:00 p.m. ET|