The No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers tangle with the No. 4 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament in Greensboro Friday.
Virginia won its quarterfinal matchup with Syracuse in dramatic fashion, knocking down a 3-pointer at the buzzer to edge the Orange 72-69 as a 5.5-point NCAA betting favorite. Georgia Tech moved into the semis with a sloppy win over scrappy Miami, taking a 70-66 victory but failing to cover as 10-point chalk.
Here are our college basketball betting free picks and predictions for Georgia Tech vs. Virginia on March 12.
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonVirginia opened as a 4.5-point favorite while the Over/Under total hit the board at 129.5 points. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Virginia Cavaliers betting preview
Injuries
Georgia Tech: Jose Alvarado G (Probable).
Virginia: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cavaliers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia Tech vs. Virginia.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Georgia Tech avoided an upset loss to Miami and extended its winning streak to seven games going back to Valentine’s Day, but it sure didn’t look like one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Yellow Jackets were outworked inside and forced careless mistakes in the second half, nearly giving the game away to the Hurricanes in the closing minutes.
Those errors will be extra costly versus Virginia’s stingy defense. The Cavaliers may have needed some last-second magic to advance versus the Orange but didn’t play poorly on Thursday. It was just that Syracuse played really well.
Virginia won both matchups with the Ramblin’ Wreck this season, most recently locking down GT in a 57-49 road win in which UVA overcame a bad start to post 37 points in the final 20 minutes. The Cavs crushed the Jackets on the boards in that win, owning a 33-18 advantage, and covered as 4.5-point road faves.
Georgia Tech was pushed around by Miami’s big men in the quarterfinals and couldn’t pull away, despite an exhausted Hurricanes team turning the ball over 18 times and going to sleep offensively in the last 10 minutes of the game.
Another factor leaning towards UVA is a knee injury to Yellow Jackets guard and top perimeter pest Jose Alvarado. He exited Thursday’s game after banging his knee in the first half, and while he did return for a gutty second-half effort, he was noticeably slowed by the injury. Virginia’s veteran backcourt will likely go after Alvarado if they smell blood in the water.
PREDICTION: Virginia -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Georgia Tech’s interior attack, featuring ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright, struggled against the size of the Canes frontcourt. Wright scored only seven points on 3-for-9 shooting and was limited in minutes due to foul trouble. Wright struggled in both games versus UVA this season, scoring a combined 21 points on just 10-for-28 shooting from the floor in those contests.
Virginia has plenty of beef around the basket with forward Sam Hauser and 7-foot-1 center Jay Huff patrolling the baseline, as well as 6-foot-9 swingman Trey Murphy coming over on help. On top of that rim protection, the Cavaliers' pace of play slows the entire game down to a crawl and forces foes to chew up an average of 18.7 seconds per possession – third-most in the country.
Offensively, UVA was a bit slow out of the blocks against SU and hasn’t shot the ball well from beyond the arc in recent efforts. It finished with 11 triples in the win over the Orange but took 35 attempts from distance (31 percent). In the three games prior, the Cavaliers hit an average of just six 3-pointers and made only 29 percent of those long-range looks.
Georgia Tech sees a significant slide in scoring when playing away from home. It managed only 70 points on 46.8 percent shooting in the win over Miami and averaged just 69.7 points outside of McCamish Pavilion in the regular season – a near 10-point difference than the Jackets’ production at home.
Virginia and Georgia Tech stayed below the 126-point total in their last matchup on February 10 and went Over the 123-point total by three points at UVA on January 23.
PREDICTION: Under 129.5 (-110)
Georgia Tech vs Virginia betting card
- Virginia -4.5 (-110)
- Under 129.5 (-110)
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