As the calendar flips to February, each passing game grows increasingly more important.
For the Kentucky Wildcats, tonight's game vs. the Florida Gators is a chance to keep pace with the conference-leading Alabama Crimson Tide. For Florida, it's a chance to extend its winning streak to four games and beat Kentucky for just the second time in the last 12 meetings.
The college basketball odds favor Kentucky, but are our free college basketball picks in agreement?
Read on as I break down Florida vs. Kentucky on Wednesday, January 31.
Florida vs Kentucky best odds
Florida vs Kentucky picks and predictions
The Kentucky Wildcats have enjoyed a smooth start to the season, posting a 15-4 record overall including a 10-1 record on their home court. They're among the very best teams in terms of points per game, averaging north of 88, and 3-point field goal percentage — connecting at a 40% clip.
They have an abundance of talent and guys who can score at will led by guard Antonio Reeves. This big, shifty point guard is putting up 19.5 points per game on 50% shooting from the floor. If he's not firing — which is rare — the Wildcats boast four other players who average double-digit points.
To say the very least, Kentucky can trade buckets with just about any team in college basketball this year.
Enter the Florida Gators.
The Gators may be one of the handful of teams that are equipped to handle everything that Kentucky will throw their way.
They average over 85 ppg, and while they may not knock down the three ball at a high clip, they have size and toughness in the paint which can take over most games. Walter Clayton and Zyon Pullin lead the charge, posting 15.9 and 14.9 ppg, respectively.
Florida is the best rebounding team in the country and averages 14.7 offensive boards per game. This is going to give UK fits as we've seen it struggle with teams who are great at crashing the boards.
The biggest red flag is the fact Florida has lost five straight to Kentucky and 10 of the last 11 meetings. The only win during the span did come in Lexington, so maybe some familiarity will help the cause.
I expect this game to be competitive from start to finish and the Gators sneaking inside this number for a nice cover.
My best bet: Florida +6 (-110 at Caesars)
Florida vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Florida +5.5
Under 170.5
Walter Clayton Over 15.5 points
In addition to Florida catching points, I'm going to add Walter Clayton Over 15.5 points.
This is a good matchup for Clayton against a Wildcats side that is outside the Top 135 in defensive rating. Clayton has topped this total in four of his last seven games, and in the two he didn't, he finished with exactly 15 points. Clayton is the focal point for the Gators and he will get his.
Finally, I'm adding the Under 170.5. It's tough to win conference games and it's especially tough when both teams are as good as they are. Florida will want to slow this game down and dominate the paint, and if the Wildcats' shots aren't falling from the perimeter, they could be in trouble.
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Florida vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Kentucky laying 6.5 points on its home court, but it was bet down to as low as -5.5 before settling in at -6 at most sportsbooks. Given the team's head-to-head record, I do understand why most would be hesitant to grab the points with the Gators, but these two teams match up well and I believe Florida will have a game plan in place to slow the game down and use its size down low.
As for the total, we saw a 171.5 at open but that's also been bet down to as low as 170 at Caesars. Most shops are sitting at 170.5 or 171, but the total feels a tad too high. I understand both teams average north of 85 points per game, but I don't believe we see a track meet.
Florida vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The Under has hit in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Kentucky.
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Florida vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Florida vs Kentucky key injuries
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