The No. 6 Duke Blue Devils head to Tallahassee on Saturday afternoon to face the Florida State Seminoles.
The Blue Devils are coming off a pair of poor defensive performances, but my Duke vs. Florida State predictions are betting on them to get back on track today.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this ACC clash on January 3.
Duke vs Florida State prediction
Duke vs Florida State best bet: Florida State team total Under 73.5 (-110)
The Duke Blue Devils are 12-1 but are coming off back-to-back shaky defensive performances. In their last game, they beat Georgia Tech 85-79, and before that, lost 82-81 to Texas Tech.
That said, they still rank eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and coach Jon Scheyer will want to focus on that end of the floor with a date against offensive powerhouse Louisville looming.
The Florida State Seminoles love to push the pace and rank ninth in the country in adjusted tempo. However, the Blue Devils can slow down opponents, ranking 351st in opponent possession length.
Florida State shoots threes at the second-highest rate in the nation but does a poor job converting those attempts, sitting outside the Top 250 in 3-point percentage (26.5%). That's bad news against a Duke squad that holds opponents to 28.9% shooting from deep.
A significant portion of FSU's points come on the fast break after forcing turnovers with ball pressure. However, the Blue Devils take care of the ball and don't allow many opportunities in transition.
The Seminoles are fresh off a 79-66 loss to North Carolina. They've been held below their team total in all five of their games against high-major foes and also scored 69 points on 36% shooting against Dayton. Expect their offense to be contained again.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Duke vs Florida State same-game parlay
Duke freshman forward Cameron Boozer is the Wooden Award favorite and is averaging 23.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. With FSU's fast tempo and poor interior defense, this is a spot where Boozer can pad his stats.
The Seminoles are 298th in defensive rebounding rate while sitting outside the Top 300 at defending the rim per ShotQualityBets. Boozer has dropped at least 25 points in five of his last seven games while pulling down 12+ boards in three of his previous four contests.
Duke vs Florida State SGP
- Florida State team total Under 73.5
- Cameron Boozer Over 24.5 points
- Cameron Boozer Over 11.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Topsy-turvy
Chauncey Wiggins has hit 2+ treys in five of his last seven games, which includes contests against UNC and Houston, where FSU was held below 68 points. His high shooting volume could lead to this prop cashing even if his team struggles to score.
Duke vs Florida State SGP
- Florida State team total Under 73.5
- Cameron Boozer Over 24.5 points
- Cameron Boozer Over 11.5 rebounds
- Chauncey Wiggins Over 1.5 threes
Duke vs Florida State odds
- Spread: Duke -14.5 | Florida State +14.5
- Moneyline: Duke -1400 | Florida State +850
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5
Duke vs Florida State betting trend to know
The Seminoles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Florida State.
How to watch Duke vs Florida State
| Location | Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Saturday, January 3, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Duke vs Florida State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
