Baylor vs Oregon State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Bully Beavers On the Glass

The No. 13 Baylor Bears hit the road for the first time this season when they face off against the Oregon State Beavers in the Barclays Center. The game marks the opener of the NIT Tip-Off, with college basketball odds pegging Bayor as a monster favorite.

The Bears have been impressive in this short season, storming back in their opener to get a win against Auburn and, since then, have blown out some lesser competition. Things need to be more balanced at the beginning of the year for the Beavs. They started the season 3-0 with a couple of overtime wins, and then some of that caught up to them when Nebraska blitzed by 21 points. That's how it will enter this contest. 

What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in my free college basketball picks for Wednesday, November 22.

Baylor vs Oregon State best odds

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Baylor vs Oregon State picks and predictions

One of the most defining characteristics of a National Champion that goes unnoticed is its offensive rebounding percentage. Ask defending National Champion Connecticut, who finished third last season in the country in that category.

Today, it's one of the most significant advantages for either team, leading me to grab Baylor -16 as my best bet. 

To begin with, I'm not sure Oregon State can defend well enough in the halfcourt sitting to keep pace with the Bears without giving them second-chance points. The Beavers' numbers have been skewed by multiple overtime performances in a short sample, but two games that didn't go to extra time have told a story. They allowed Nebraska to post its highest points per possession of the season and gave up too many open looks to the Cornhuskers.

Baylor has a few advantages here before we get to its prowess on the backboard. Oregon State could have been better defensively in transition, which is problematic when facing Baylor.

The Bears want to speed you up and use their talent advantage and superior athleticism to beat you. They've started the season posting a 1.1 PPP rating in transition, which is good for second overall in the Big 12. Another way to say this is Baylor is very much in the elite category of transition scoring.

Again, this is an issue for Oregon State. Against Iowa State — the only Power Five team it's faced this far — it gave up 24 points in transition. That number was the highest of the season and potentially an indication of what's to come when the Beavs begin to face stiffer competition. 

Now, let's revisit Baylor's dominance on the backboard. If Oregon State can slow this one down and get the game at the pace it wants, then there are still issues to come. That's because the Bears enter this matchup fourth in the country in offensive rebounding rate.

The Beavers sit at 194 in defensive rebounding rate. They can have some decent success defending Baylor in the halfcourt, but that's likely to be undone by the second-chance points it will give up. Whether it's Josh Ojianwuna — who has logged eight or more boards in two of the last three games — or Yves Missi, the Bears are likely to dominate the offensive backboard.

The scenarios in which Baylor can cover are plentiful. My numbers indicate around a 19-point margin for the Bears, making this easily enough playable edge. That said, if Baylor is able to force its tempo on Oregon State, then this one could get out of hand in a hurry.

My best bet: Baylor -16 (-110 at bet365)

Baylor vs Oregon State same-game parlay

Baylor -16.5

Ray J Dennis Over 4.5 assists

+195 at bet365

I'm going to take my best bet and pair it with one heavy correlation.

Ray J Dennis has exceeded this number in three of the four games he's faced this season. If this turns into an up-and-down affair, then this will easily cash.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Baylor vs Oregon State spread and Over/Under analysis

When Dennis came to Baylor in the transfer portal, it was a like-for-like replacement for LJ Cryer who left. It's been close. With him leading the transition break or pick-and-roll offense, I expect Baylor to put up a significant number. Oregon State doesn't have the horses on the other end to match that output. 

I leaned to the Over here and played it for a half unit at 139.5, but it began to move. 

A bet on this is a belief that Baylor forces its tempo on Oregon State, and the scoring becomes free and easy for stretches. I should have mentioned that Oregon State has a fine transition offense in its own right, averaging right at one point per possession.

It just is dwarfed by the Bears in athleticism and talent. Baylor has been on a decent run of Overs, as it's hit in nine of their last 16 games. Oddly enough, the Beavs have matched that same ratio over its previous 16 games. 

Baylor vs Oregon State betting trend to know

Baylor has hit the 1H moneyline in 21 of its last 32 games (+4.85 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Oregon State.

Baylor vs Oregon State game info

Baylor vs Oregon State key injuries

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