Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's SEC Tournament Game

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst 18+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 11, 2026 , 07:56 AM ET • 4 min read

Farmer's Prediction: Auburn and Mississippi State set off some fireworks in Nashville.

NCAAB

Match starts: 5 hrs
MSST
37 %
AUB
63 %
EXPERT PICK - TOTAL
u158.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Tahaad Pettiford Auburn Tigers college basketball
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Auburn guard Tahaad Pettiford drives against the Kentucky Wildcats in late February.

No one in college basketball needs to make a statement this week more than the Auburn Tigers do. That mission should begin with a high-scoring display against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

My Auburn vs. Mississippi State predictions and these college basketball picks expect plenty of points in Nashville on Wednesday, March 10.

Auburn vs Mississippi State prediction

Auburn vs Mississippi State best bet

Auburn vs Mississippi State best bet: Over 158.5 (-110)

Do you really want to bet either of these teams against the spread? The Auburn Tigers are the most controversial bubble team in large part because they have gone 3-8 outright and 1-10 against the spread in their last 11.

Not to be outdone by much, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are 0-5 both outright and ATS in their last five, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 11.7 points in those five games.

Auburn’s best path toward the NCAA Tournament is via its offense, which ranks No. 12 in the country in efficiency, per KenPom.

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Auburn vs Mississippi State same-game parlay

No one needs style points more than Auburn does right now if it wants to make the Big Dance despite the egregious behavior of teams like Miami (OH). Note: “Egregious” was used sarcastically there, as Bruce Pearl’s foolish rant deserves nothing but sarcasm.

Auburn vs Mississippi State SGP

  • Over 158.5
  • Auburn -7.5
  • Auburn first-half moneyline

Auburn vs Mississippi State odds

  • Spread: Auburn +7.5 | Mississippi State -7.5
  • Moneyline: Auburn +275 | Mississippi State -350
  • Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5

Auburn vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

Auburn’s last four games have all gone Over their totals and by an average of 8.75 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Mississippi State.

How to watch Auburn vs Mississippi State

Location Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Date Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Tip-off 3:00 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network

Auburn vs Mississippi State key injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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