Arizona State vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Burn Out Sun Devils

The second game of the 2023 Barstool Invitational tonight features two teams that found their way to the First Four of the NCAA Tournament last season, as the Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. 

The Sun Devils are coming off a 23-13 season but are returning only three players from that entire roster. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are bringing back the majority of their team but will be without some key players tonight. Which team will overcome offseason pains and cover in the college basketball odds this week? 

Find out in my free college basketball picks for Arizona State vs. Mississippi State on November 8. 

Arizona State vs Mississippi State best odds

Arizona State vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

Arizona Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley will have to replace a ton of production from their successful season last year that saw them win a First Four game to get into the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

The losses include the Top 4 scorers, and only one starter will return to this year’s roster. To make matters worse, one of those returning big men — forward Alonzo Gaffney — will miss this game with a foot sprain. The Sun Devils have 10 new players on this roster and eight came through the transfer portal. 

As of today, shooting guard Adam Miller from LSU is still not eligible to play and will leave Arizona State with some need for help from several newbies. Shooting guard Jose Perez from West Virginia — who joined the team two weeks ago after reportedly being kicked off the Mountaineers squad — will be thrown into play immediately after having not played a game since the 2021-22 season for Manhattan.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are returning much more of their production, but have some serious injury concerns to start the season. Center Tolu Smith was voted First Team All-SEC in the preseason but will be out with a foot injury. Backup center KeyShawn Murphy is also out with a foot injury and shooting guard Shakeel Moore is out for violation of team rules. 

This will leave a few newcomers to step up into some reserve roles tonight before anticipated. True freshman combo guard Josh Hubbard was a four-star recruit according to On3 Recruiting and will be needed tonight to play some minutes. With two centers out, true freshman Gai Chol (three-star recruit) will also need to be ready. 

The good news is shooting guard Andrew Taylor from Marshall transferred in and averaged 20.2 points, 4.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game last season. Miss State will also have returning starters Cameron Matthews, D.J. Jeffries, and Dashawn Davis ready to go to help defend last year’s ninth-ranked scoring defense in the NCAA. 

Even without their top two centers, the Bulldogs will still have a huge advantage in the frontcourt between Matthews and Jeffries' experience in the same system against three newcomers from three different schools. Arizona State will need to rely on shooting, but the Bulldogs won’t make that easy either. Give me Mississippi State to win and cover in the season opener. 

My best bet: Mississippi State -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Arizona State vs Mississippi State same-game parlay

Mississippi State -3.5

Jeffries Over 13.5 pts

Matthews Over 8.5 pts

Arizona State TT Under 63.5

+806 at FanDuel

Starting with the spread, I can create a nice same-game parlay on FanDuel with some player props based on mismatches in the frontcourt. 

The Sun Devils don't have a single frontcourt player who has played more than 22 minutes per game in their college career. With Smith missing for the Bulldogs, D.J. Jeffries stats and Cameron Matthews stats will be popping as both can dominate down low. I'll take both of their point total Overs with several opportunities for offensive rebounds and putbacks. 

Finally, I'm relying on the Bulldogs' defense to keep Arizona State Under 63.5 points. Miss State allowed 61.0 points per game last season and will still be a very good defense even without Smith down low. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona State vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis

Miss State is currently a 3.5-point favorite at most books with ASU going near even money at +3.5. This line has dipped to -3 at some books but the majority consensus is still -3.5.

The Sun Devils will be relying heavily on the play from point guard Frankie Collins — the lone returning starter from last season — to stay competitive in this game. However, he will have to deal with Dashawn Davis from the Bulldogs, who is a defensive menace and averaged 1.7 steals per game last year. 

This total opened up between 129.5 and 131.5 without much movement on either side.

The Bulldogs ranked ninth in points allowed per game at 61.0 points last year. In the KenPom rankings, they ranked ninth in defensive efficiency and 336th in pace of play. Miss State will want to keep things slow without three of its key players in its depth. 

With Arizona State having several new players, I wouldn't expect it to want to play very fast either. If it does go fast, you could expect to see several mistakes and turnovers against a top defense. Either way, you have to like the Under with the expected game script. 

Arizona State vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

Mississippi State went 5-3 on neutral courts last season and won 73-54 in last year’s Barstool Invitational. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. Mississippi State.

Arizona State vs Mississippi State game info

Arizona State vs Mississippi State key injuries

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