Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Crimson Tide Steamroll Bulldogs

First-year Head Coach Chris Jans has done an impressive job with the Mississippi State Bulldogs this season. While they have yet to be tested a ton, they have some solid wins over Marquette and Utah. As a result, they'll arrive at this matchup with just one blemish on their record.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have kept their train rolling and looked very impressive to start the year. Sure they lost to Gonzaga in a highly competitive game, but they've been strong otherwise and come into this matchup fresh off a 20-point win against Jackson State.

What's the best bet for this conference tilt? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Mississippi State.

Alabama vs Mississippi State best odds

Alabama vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

This feels like a pretender/contender game. I'm happily rolling with the Crimson Tide here because Mississippi State is that pretender.

Before we look at any matchup particulars in this game, let's visit who these two teams have played this season. Alabama has played and beaten the likes of Houston, Memphis, and North Carolina. That's three Top 30 KenPom teams, including the No. 1 team in KenPom, Houston.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State's best win and competition overall is Marquette. That's quite a gap, and this is coming from someone who thinks quite highly of the Eagles. This difference in quality makes me wonder if the Bulldogs are ready for this matchup before it even starts. Then, of course, there's everything else.

The Nichols State game for Miss State was a troubling sign of what's to come: they will struggle in high-tempo games. That game was the first of the season to go over 70 possessions, and the Bulldogs barely pulled off the win against a team they were significantly more talented than.

Alabama is going to play fast, and there's no way of stopping that. The Tide play at the fourth-highest tempo in basketball, according to Bart Torvik. Every game they've played this season has over 70 possessions except the one they won by 40 plus against Jacksonville State. 

The other part of this that's a massive backing in Alabama's favor? It's a borderline elite transition offense. Holding opponents to under a point per possession in transition is impressive with any schedule, but it's super impressive when you look at some of the teams that Bama has faced and what they do in transition.

Off the top of my head, Gonzaga comes to mind, and Mississippi State isn't Gonzaga. In fact, it's just below average in transition scoring relevant to the rest of the country. If the Crimson Tide could slow down Gonzaga in transition, what would they do against the Bulldogs? I know, and I'm hoping I'm right.

The above two paragraphs point out a simple point: Miss State will be forced to play this game in a way it doesn't want to play. It's not prepared for it — given the competition it's faced this season, nor does it have the skill set to handle it. Roll Tide. 

My best bet: Alabama moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)

Alabama vs Mississippi State spread analysis

I spent the above section hammering home why I like Alabama today. The one concern I have is the turnover issue for the Tide. They've coughed the ball up far too much for my liking at nearly 17 per game.  However, I don't think it makes up the difference for what will occur in transition. Alabama is creating an extra bucket in transition for every turnover it loses. I'll take that any day of the week. 

Given the long-standing conference affiliation, these two teams have met a ton over the past few years. However, when they face off, one of the most vital trends is that the favorite tends to win, going 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between the two teams. Here's to that trend continuing in this installment. 

Alabama vs Mississippi State Over/Under analysis

I lean to the Over here, which is the auto stance anytime Alabama plays. I spoke about it in the onset, but it plays at one of the fastest tempos of anyone in the country. It will force you to play at that tempo, and you had better hope you're prepared for it. I don't think the Bulldogs will be ready for the game's speed, but they'll force enough turnovers to do enough for the Over. 

This total opened up at 140, and bettors have agreed with my line of thinking. It has popped to 141 or 141.5, depending on what book you're using. There is a strong trend of Overs hitting in Crimson Tide games against good teams. In fact, the Over is 20-6 in the last 26 games they've played against a team with a .600 record or better.

Alabama vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. Find more College basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Mississippi State.

Alabama vs Mississippi State game info

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