MVP favorite Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors lock horns with their former teammate Kevin Durant as they visit the Brooklyn Nets Tuesday night.
Golden State has been running roughshod over its opponents so far this season, but Brooklyn is sure to put up a solid fight. In fact, books have the Nets favored.
Let's find out who you should be putting your money behind as we break down our Warriors vs. Nets picks and predictions for November 16.
Warriors vs Nets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Brooklyn opened as a -3.5 favorite, which has been bet down to -2.5. The total hit the books between 219.5 and 220.5 and can be had at 220 as of writing.
Warriors vs Nets predictions
Predictions made on 11/16/2021 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Nets game info
• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Tuesday, November 16, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Warriors vs Nets betting preview
Warriors: Gary Payton II PG (Questionable), Klay Thompson SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out)
Nets: Joe Harris SF (Out), Paul Millsap PF (Out), Nic Claxton C (Out), Kyrie Irving PG (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams above .600 and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nets.
Warriors vs Nets picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
The public's perception of the Nets has to be skewed to some extent.
There's no other way to explain how they're favored in this game, even as the home team (and one with a better road record at that). Yes, Kevin Durant has been scoring with unreal efficiency this season, but Kyrie Irving's MIA and James Harden's getting to the line at career-low rates while mired in a disturbing shooting slump. Brooklyn's also without Joe Harris, Paul Millsap, and Nic Claxton, ravaging its front-line depth and taking away its best spacing threat.
Meanwhile, the 11-2 Warriors are only the NBA's best team to date. They lead the league in net rating by a nautical mile (12.7). They have one of the game's most explosive scorers ever playing at an MVP level, Draymond Green doing Draymond Green things, and are suddenly deep to the point of not even having to lean on their rookies, or worry about Klay Thompson's ongoing absence.
Golden State's also made a habit of beating the book's expectations in these situations. As mentioned above, they're 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams above .600 and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss. The Dubs are also 8-4-1 ATS overall on the season, fifth-best in the NBA.
This game screams Warriors cover situationally, on paper, and in terms of both teams' current form. Don't over-think things here. Back the road dogs.
Prediction: Golden State -2.5 (-105)
Unders have been absurdly hot this season, hitting at a 60 percent clip across the NBA. Between the new game ball and stricter shooting-foul policies, scoring has fallen faster than books have kept up with. But this isn't the game for that line of thought.
Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 115 ppg, while Brooklyn's 108.5 ppg, the league's median, also feels like a general floor. This already puts us north of the 220 total without factoring in the matchup.
Both teams play at a Top-10 pace, so this could easily turn into a back-and-forth contest. Both also have superstar scorers that can summon instant offense and force the other team's hand. While Golden State has been an elite defensive unit, containing Durant (a former Warrior who had a tumultuous exit from the team and is one of the pettiest humans alive) is a relative term. With Golden State scoring so much, Brooklyn's M.O. is more likely to be fight fire with fire.
The Dubs have netted more than 114 points in six of their last seven games, averaging 118.7 ppg in that stretch. Several of those contests have fallen well shy of this total by way of complete blowout, but that shouldn't be the case against an opponent as tough as Brooklyn. Even a game in the 115-110 range gets us Over this total, making it tough not to back.
Prediction: Over 220 (-110)
Again, it's best not to over-think this spread. But just to recap: The Warriors have easily looked like the best team in the NBA so far and are being spotted points against an opponent that, while definitely dangerous, is both less consistent and more injured.
Before their Sunday loss to Charlotte, the Warriors had won seven straight by an average of 21.57 points. They're not just beating teams, they're destroying them.
The extent to which Golden State is leading the NBA in net rating is ridiculous. The Warriors are beating teams by an average of 12.7 points per 100 possessions, 5.3 points ahead of No. 2 Miami at 7.4 — a margin big enough to cover the teams ranked two through 11 in the metric.
The Dubs are also the only team with a Top-5 rating on both sides of the ball (1st on D, 3rd on O), meaning they're multi-faceted, can lean on more edges, and win games in more ways.
They just had a seven-game win streak snapped, and came into this season with something to prove after back-to-back playoff misses. Expect them to come out amped up for the Durant reunion and deliver a win.
Pick: Golden State -2.5 (-105)
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