Don’t overreact to the Golden State Warriors. They’re still 5.5 games clear of missing the Play-In Tournament.
That said, losing Jimmy Butler this week flips their season on its head.
My Warriors vs. Mavericks predictions take that urgency into account, and I expect Jonathan Kuminga to step up in Butler’s absence.
Read more in my NBA picks for Thursday, January 22.
Warriors vs Mavericks prediction
Warriors vs Mavericks best bet: Jonathan Kuminga Over 11.5 points (-115)
The Golden State Warriors no longer have a choice. They have to play Jonathan Kuminga.
Kuminga has a standing trade demand, one that Golden State has openly scoffed at. Before Tuesday, Kuminga had sat for 16 straight games, all while the Warriors' front office publicly knocked his trade value.
This stalemate had simply gotten ugly.
But with Jimmy Butler’s ACL tear, Golden State needs to not only play Kuminga but also feature him. It was no coincidence he scored 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting in the first game after Butler’s injury.
Ahead of tonight's matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, the Warriors lack dynamic wings to take the pressure off Steph Curry. Kuminga is one of their only remaining options.
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Warriors vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Kuminga isn’t a strong deep shooter, but he takes more shots with Butler out, including from beyond the arc. He averages 3.3 attempts from deep per game without Butler, up from 2.7 when Butler plays.
However, taking more long-range shots — and missing most of them — won’t help Golden State navigate life without the player meant to extend Steph Curry’s title window.
Warriors vs Mavericks SGP
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 11.5 points
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 0.5 threes
- Mavericks +5.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Dray Fell Off
If Draymond Green was going to summon some gusto to keep the season alive sans Butler, it did not show up on Tuesday, posting a -27 in 22 minutes in an 18-point loss to the Raptors.
Including that night, Green has fallen short of this modest rebounding prop in three straight games and in seven of nine since New Year’s Day.
Warriors vs Mavericks SGP
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 11.5 points
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 0.5 threes
- Mavericks moneyline
- Draymond Green Under 6.5 rebounds
Warriors vs Mavericks odds
- Spread: Warriors -5.5 (-110) | Mavericks +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -225 | Mavericks +185
- Over/Under: Over 234.5 (-110) | Under 234.5 (-110)
Warriors vs Mavericks betting trend to know
Dallas has gone 4-1 against the spread in its last five games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.7 points per game. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Warriors vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Thursday, January 22, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Warriors vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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