The Golden State Warriors are in form, taking three of their last five, but now they’ll have to find a way to take down the Sacramento Kings without at least one of their biggest stars.
We’ll explain in our Warriors vs. Kings predictions why the Kings, shorthanded in their own right, should have a chance to pull out their third win of the year on Wednesday.
Read below for my free NBA picks for Wednesday, November 5.
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Warriors vs Kings prediction
Warriors vs Kings best bet: Kings -2 (-110 at bet365)
While some things change, others remain the same. To begin yet another season, the Sacramento Kings are struggling to defend, and with several players like Malik Monk and rookie Nique Clifford missing time, the offense has cratered as well.
The Kings will at least get Monk back after the guard missed time due to personal reasons, but now they’ll be without Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine.
The Golden State Warriors are already without Stephen Curry, and has Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Brandin Podziemski all listed as questionable – meaning this game could take a much different shape.
So far this season, the Warriors are increasing their shooting frequency by over 9% without Curry on the floor, while they’ve taken 4.4% fewer shots from beyond the arc.
While you might think that’s a good thing for Sacramento, it’s actually had the 13th-best three-point defense according to Cleaning the Glass but has sat 17th both at the rim and in the mid-range.
The Kings have also allowed the eighth-fewest shots from three on average and 12th-fewest from the rim, so you’d have to suspect the Warriors shoot out of the mid-range.
This has statistically been Golden State’s worst area of the floor in 2025, and if Curry and Green are both gone the team’s missing two players who have represented a drastic jump in shooting accuracy from both the long and short mid-range spots.
I think there’s a world here where the Kings slow the Warriors from the mid-range, but even if they don’t this isn’t going to be a highly-efficient night for Golden State.
Sacramento is without its two biggest scorers, but does have a positive matchup as a team that takes the most mid-range shots in the league against the 23rd-best mid-range defense in the Warriors.
The Under would be a great play at a slightly different number, so I’ll side with the Kings.
Warriors vs Kings same-game parlay
Without LaVine and Sabonis, the offense really should be running around Monk – and that’s a good thing with the Warriors lacking defense in the mid-range.
Monk has taken 39% of his shots from that range this season, ranked in the 90th percentile of all wings, and without the defensive help of Curry – and potentially others on Golden State – he should have a clear lane into another big scoring night.
I also have to attack the Kings – the third-worst rebounding team in the league – on the glass, and I think I have to do that with Jonathan Kuminga.
He should see a usage increase with so many key players banged up, and he’s averaging a hefty 6.9 boards per game this season.
Warriors vs Kings SGP
- Kings -2
- Malik Monk Over 15.5 points
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 6.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Warriors picking up the slack
With Sacramento also allowing the fourth-most assists per 100 possessions to its opponents, and the most to opposing guards, we will mix in Podziemski’s assist total here.
Assuming he plays, he should take on a bulk of minutes at point guard in Curry’s absence and easily crack this number.
The Kings have also allowed the third-most steals per 100 possessions to opposing forwards, despite the bulk of the turnovers coming from their three lead guards.
With that, we’ll add in Kuminga to grab a couple of steals here – something he’s done just once this season but should be attainable in more minutes.
Warriors vs Kings SGP
- Kings -2
- Malik Monk Over 15.5 points
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 6.5 rebounds
- Brandin Podziemski Over 4.5 assists
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 0.5 steals
Warriors vs Kings odds
- Spread: Warriors +2 | Kings -2
- Moneyline: Warriors +115 | Kings -135
- Over/Under: Over 224 | Under 224
Warriors vs Kings betting trend to know
The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.
How to watch Warriors vs Kings
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, November 5, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Bay Area, NBC Sports California |
Warriors vs Kings latest injuries
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