Trail Blazers vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Portland Keeps Poole at Bay

The Golden State Warriors look to extend their three-game winning streak in the middle of a five-game homestand when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday night at Chase Center.

The Warriors have been the best team at home this season, with a 15-2 straight-up record — a stark contrast to their league-worst 3-16 away mark — whereas the Blazers are an even 10-10 on the road.

Portland will be without Justise Winslow, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson, Greg Brown, and Gary Payton II, while Golden State is once again playing without Steph Curry, along with Andre Iguodala and Andrew Wiggins.  

Can Golden State stay hot at home in spite of key absences on Friday night? Find out in our NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Warriors below. 

Trail Blazers vs Warriors best odds

Trail Blazers vs Warriors picks and predictions

Since suffering a left shoulder injury on Dec. 14, Steph Curry has missed the Warriors’ last seven games, in which the team managed to put together a 4-3 record. All three losses came on the road to Philadelphia, New York, and Brooklyn, with all three opponents ranking in the Top 8 of the Eastern Conference standings.

Once Golden State returned home, everything changed. Despite facing the West's third-best team in Memphis and the ninth-best team in Utah, the Warriors posted victories without Curry’s help. They also toppled a lowly Charlotte team in a narrow 110-105 win.

A major key to those victories has been the play of Jordan Poole, who has averaged 27.5 points, 3.9 assists, 1.7 rebounds, and 2.7 made threes in 10 games without Curry. The former first-round draft pick poured in 32 points on 11-for-25 shooting against Memphis in a 123-109 beatdown on Christmas Day before being ejected in the fourth quarter. He also went 3-for-10 from deep and added three rebounds, two assists, and turned the ball over five times.

Poole followed up that performance with 24 points against Charlotte, but went cold from beyond the arc, hitting just one of his seven attempts from deep against a team that ranks dead last in opponent 3-point percentage for the month of December. 

Poole then led Golden State with 26 points in a 112-107 win over Utah, going 7-for-22 from the field and 2-for-10 from three while committing six turnovers.

Star guard Klay Thompson sat out Wednesday’s game against Utah, the back end of a back-to-back, but came in fresh the game before to score a game-high 29 points over Charlotte. 

With Thompson returning from another stint of rest, he’ll play a lead role in Friday’s matchup, with Poole taking a bit of a back seat.

Poole will also find threes hard to come by against Portland, which is tied for ninth in opponent 3-point percentage (35.4%) for the month of December.

With the deep ball likely a struggle for the former Michigan star, and Thompson back in the lineup against a team he’s averaged 20.4 points against for his career with a 42.8% clip from deep, expect Poole’s scoring to dip some for this matchup.

The 23-year-old has surpassed 26 points twice in his last five games, but on both occasions, he hit at least three 3-pointers, which is unlikely to happen Friday night against Portland’s 3-point defense.

My best bet: Jordan Poole Under 26.5 points (-120)

Trail Blazers vs Warriors spread analysis

The Warriors opened as a slim 2- to 2.5-point underdog despite their impressive home record this season. On top of that, the Blazers have dropped their last three on the road, and Golden State has won three straight home games against Western Conference foes, with each victory coming by at least 10 points. 

With Damian Lillard in Portland’s lineup, the team has a much better chance, as the Blazers are 5-7 this season without their star but 13-9 when he’s active. However, Lillard has accumulated only three victories in 15 regular-season games in San Francisco for his career and has scored more than 30 points six times in those 15 matchups.

The Blazers are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games and just 12-26 ATS in the last 38 meetings in Golden State. However, the Warriors are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. winning teams.

Moreover, Portland has two SU losses in five games as the road favorite, with a similar 3-2 ATS record when favored as the away team. But Golden State’s success at home cannot be ignored, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS as a home underdog this season.

Look for the home team to come out hot and give Portland another tough evening in the Bay Area. 

Trail Blazers vs Warriors Over/Under analysis

Not only do the Warriors find a way to win at home, but they see a notable uptick in scoring inside Chase Center, with the team averaging 119.3 points per game, compared to 113.7 on the road.

Their defense has also shown improvement over the last three home dates, as it held Memphis, Charlotte, and Utah to fewer than 105 points per 100 possessions.

In Portland’s last three on the road, the defense surrendered 120 or more points to Oklahoma City and Denver, while the offense put up an average of 108.6 points over that three-game skid.

The last three head-to-head matchups between these teams have also resulted in lower points totals. Golden State held Portland to 95 points in a 132-95 trashing last time out, and the two teams combined to score 198 and 221 points in the previous two.

The total for Friday’s meeting opened between 230 and 231 and has shifted in favor of the Over to 233.

The Under is 4-1 in Portland’s last five overall and 7-3 in the Trail Blazers’ last 10 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Even more significant, the Under has gone 7-0 in the Warriors’ last seven home games is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings at Golden State.

Trail Blazers vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Under is 7-0 in the Warriors’ last seven home games and 3-0-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Warriors.

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