The Portland Trail Blazers made the most of Game 4 in their series with the Denver Nuggets, delivering a decisive 20-point victory to even their first-round series at two games apiece.
The scene now shifts back to Denver for Game 5, as the Nuggets look to rebound from a highly disappointing effort.
Find out if they can with our Game 5 Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets NBA betting picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 1.
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Tuesday, June 1, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Denver -1.5, with the total at 226. Early action favored Denver, bumping the spread to -2, while the total has remained steady. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, 68 percent of bets are on the Nuggets with 80 percent of the money riding on the Trail Blazers. About 86 percent of total wagers are on the Over for Game 5.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTrail Blazers vs Nuggets series odds
Trail Blazers: -130
Nuggets: +110
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
Trail Blazers: Zach Collins C (Out).
Nuggets: Will Barton SF (Out), P.J. Dozier SG (Out), Jamal Murray PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 in Nuggets' last five games overall, and 8-2 in their last 10 games following a SU loss of 10+ points. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
So, the Nuggets had an off game.
It's understandable, given that arguably all three of their top guards are on the sidelines and MVP-to-be Nikola Jokic has shouldered more of a load than any single player in the NBA this season.
Jokic was 7 for 18 for just 16 points in Game 4. It was his weakest output since scoring 14 points against the Clippers way back on April 1, while tying his season-low for assists (one). He couldn't have been much worse, and betting on him to bounce back tonight is a must.
Game 4 also wasn't Damian Lillard's finest hour, as the Blazers notched a blowout despite their superstar PG scoring a meager 10 points. But Lillard still got involved (almost dropping a triple-double with 10/8/10), with Norman Powell stepping up to buoy Portland's offense (29 points on 73 percent shooting).
Denver got no such luck. Jokic's 16 points led them in scoring, part of just 45 from their starters, with the team collectively shooting 34 percent from the floor. It was just a sad display — and a pretty big outlier.
Jokic is the high tide that raises all boats. The star that Denver orbits around. He'll be MVP by next week and is back at home facing a crucial game against the NBA's second-worst defense.
Denver has way more upside for Game 5, and a greater sense of urgency. Back them to get the job done here.
PREDICTION: Denver -2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The books really don't seem to want to adjust to the results of this series. We may be getting a slight rebate after Denver completely shit the bed on Saturday, but we see no reason not to smash the Over again at 226.
For starters, Denver's 34-percent atrocity was their single worst offensive game of the year. The Nuggets were the NBA's fourth-best shooting team in the regular season (48.4%), and have only been held under 40 percent four other times in 2020-21. So, that's not happening again.
Lillard will also surely do more to swell the total. His 10 points were his fewest since he scored nine versus Utah in the season opener.
The Nuggets and Blazers have played their last five games against each other, including the regular-season finale (which, for what it's worth, Denver tanked to avoid playing the Lakers in Round 1). Even including Game 4's outlier, the total for those games averaged 232.4 — removing it, that number balloons to 238.
Treat the last game like the total aberration it was and take the Over with confidence here.
PREDICTION: Over 226 (-110)
Player prop pick
We're expecting Jokic to have an absolute monster game. Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic was called out by "mascot" Kendrick Perkins, and responded with a spirited effort on D in Game 4.
But Jokic was the freaking best player in the NBA this season and knows he needs to bring it tonight... or face elimination.
Portland, again, is the NBA's second-worst defense. And while Nurkic isn't as awful defensively as now-benched Enes Kanter, there's no reason to believe Jokic can't continue to carve him up after a brief sojourn.
A total of 48.5 is a large number in this market, but it's one Jokic topped in each of the series' first three games, despite putting up extremely pedestrian assist totals (3.6 per game, less than half of his regular-season number).
The playoffs are where stars shine, and we have zero issues backing Joker to blow up in this spot.
PREDICTION: Nikola Jokic Over 48.5 points+assists+rebounds (-115)
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets betting card
- Denver -2 (-110)
- Over 226 (-110)
- Nikola Jokic Over 48.5 points+assists+rebounds (-115)
Picks made on 6/1/2021 at 9:50 a.m. ET
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