Timberwolves vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Sunny Side Up for Durant

Kevin Durant's back in the lineup tonight, which should send an already-offense-leaning matchup into full-on shootout mode. Find out why our NBA picks think the Timberwolves will oblige the Over on Wednesday.

Last Updated: Mar 29, 2023 3:44 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Kevin Durant NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Durant is set to return to the Phoenix Suns’ lineup after missing the last 10 games with an ankle injury — and not a moment too soon.

The Suns currently sit in fourth in the Western Conference standings, holding off the teams in hot pursuit behind them, but are just a game-and-a-half from being in a play-in spot. More specifically, they're just 1.5 games up on tonight’s opponent, the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Minnesota is surging at the right time. Karl-Anthony Towns has returned and the team has won four in a row. So, are the T-Wolves undervalued as 5.5-point pups, or will KD help the Suns shine in his first home game since getting traded?

I break down this Western Conference showdown and bring you my best bet in NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Suns on Wednesday, March 29.

Timberwolves vs Suns best odds

Timberwolves vs Suns picks and predictions

The Suns were struggling with Kevin Durant sidelined. They gave up a bunch of their depth in the trade and then to make things worse, Deandre Ayton missed four games. As a result, Phoenix dropped six of the first eight games the team played without him before notching back-to-back wins against the Philadelphia 76ers and the Utah Jazz.

But now, the Suns come into this game against the Timberwolves fully healthy. KD has only played three games for the Suns so far, but they have won and covered all three. The offense looked silly good with Durant as a part of it. Phoenix averaged 120 points while shooting 50.7% from the field in those games.

Meanwhile, with the West standings so tight with just a handful of games to go, the Timberwolves are getting hot at the exact right time. Karl-Anthony Towns has looked pretty solid since returning and the team has won four in a row against quality opponents, which includes road victories over the Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, and New York Knicks.

Kind of like the Suns, this is the healthiest we have seen the T-Wolves, maybe all season, and it has had immediate positive results. The team went 3-1 against the spread during this four-game winning streak, putting up 120.8 points per game and shooting 51% from the floor over that stretch.

The Suns' offense is arguably the best in basketball with KD in the lineup, while the Wolves have looked like a Top 10 offense during their current run. While both defenses have been average, not elite, since the All-Star break, with Minnesota ranking 12th in defensive rating and Phoenix 14th. 

I like the Suns to grab the victory in KD’s home debut with the Suns, as they still look a class above the Wolves when both teams are at full health. But with Minny playing well, it’s the Over that gets my best bet status for tonight’s matchup.

My best bet: Over 234.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

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Timberwolves vs Suns spread analysis

The spread for this Western Conference matchup opened at Suns -6, which is a perfectly reasonable number considering Durant is back. But the early money has come in on the Timberwolves and the line has moved as low as Suns -4.5 at some shops. Minnesota’s current form probably has a lot to do with that.

As noted, they have played very well on the road of late, covering the spread in each of those three wins against the Knicks, Warriors and Kings. 

Additionally, three games with Durant is not a huge sample size. Yes, the Suns are 3-0 SU/ATS in the games he has played, but their toughest matchup in those games was probably the Dallas Mavericks. And we are now starting to fully understand the disaster the Mavs are turning into. 

Also, Phoenix just hasn’t been a great bet lately, going 2-7 ATS in the last nine games, while Minny has covered seven of nine on the road.

Like I said, I believe the Suns get the job done in KD’s first appearance in front of the Phoenix fans, and I would lean toward them on the spread just because I think this offense can be special. But I don’t have much confidence in that lean.

Timberwolves vs Suns Over/Under analysis

The total has hit the board at 234.5 and has bounced back and forth between that and 235 most of Wednesday afternoon, and unless there is some major player held out at the last minute (which is certainly on the table because this is the NBA) then I would expect the number to stay around the same until tipoff. 

Neither team has been elite defensively since the All-Star break. Phoenix ranks 11th in opponent points per game at 114 points allowed per contest, while Minnesota is 21st at 117.1. 

With the way, both teams are at full health, and the way they are shooting the basketball, I really think we could have a shootout on our hands here.

Timberwolves vs Suns betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2 in the Timberwolves' last seven road games and 5-1 in the Suns' last six games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Suns.

Timberwolves vs Suns game info

Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Tip-off: 10:-- p.m. ET

Timberwolves vs Suns key injuries

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