- UPDATE: Added a prediction for who will win tonight.
Victor Wembanyama will be in action for Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, despite giving Naz Reid a tracheotomy with his razor-sharp elbows.
The San Antonio Spurs star center avoided a suspension after being ejected in the first half of Game 4 for throwing a nasty elbow that would even make Ludacris blush.
With Wemby in the mix, San Antonio is favored by double digits, and my Timberwolves vs. Spurs predictions aren't anticipating a blip in his production tonight.
I explain further with my NBA picks for Tuesday, May 12.
Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, with the game airing on NBC.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5 prediction
Who will win Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5?
Spurs: The Timberwolves made the most of Wembanyama’s absence in the second half of Game 4 and knotted this series at 2-2.
No other player in the NBA impacts his team’s fortunes like the lanky Frenchman. His presence in the paint allows this San Antonio defense to push everything to the outside and cheat the passing lanes, knowing Wembanyama is behind them.
Minnesota won’t go down easy, but in the end, the Spurs get the win at home. San Antonio is 12-3 SU when laying -10 or more at home, but just 6-8-1 ATS in those outings.
Timberwolves vs Spurs best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds (-125)
Before getting the boot in Game 4, Victor Wembanyama had four boards on 9.0 potential rebounds in just 12 minutes. That opening effort put him on pace for another 15+ rebounding performance.
In the three games prior, Wembanyama snatched up 15 rebounds in each outing on almost 22 rebounding chances per game. Wemby has plucked at least 13 boards in a dozen of his previous 15 games prior to the Game 4 ejection.
With the series swinging back to San Antonio, Minnesota’s shooting could take a dip. That means more rebounding chances for Wembanyama, who is projected for as many as 15+ boards again.
COVERS INTEL: Minnesota is dead last in effective field goal rate among the remaining eight postseason teams (47.8 EFG%). That’s generated 86.0 rebounding chances per game in the conference semifinals — tied for second most in Round 2.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5 same-game parlay
San Antonio showed a lot of fight after Wembanyama got tossed in Game 4. The San Antonio Spurs were able to go small and got excellent efforts from De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper.
That gives this team something to take back to San Antonio, where its 7-footer will patrol the paint and push Minnesota to the outside. The Timberwolves haven’t been great from beyond the arc in the series, shooting just 35% from deep.
Those misses turn into long rebounds, which feed the San Antonio transition offense.
Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP
- Spurs moneyline
- Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds
- Ayo Dosunmu Over 1.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Shootout at the Alamo
Game script says the Timberwolves trail big and need to hit some triples to close the gap.
With Victor Wembanyama back on the floor, Minnesota gets pushed to the perimeter, where Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu do the heavy lifting.
The Spurs counter, as Wemby and Fox both shoot considerably better from beyond the arc at home.
Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP
- Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 threes
- De’Aaron Fox Over 1.5 threes
- Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 threes
- Ayo Dosunmu Over 1.5 threes
Timberwolves vs Spurs bonus bet: Ayo Dosunmu Over 1.5 threes (+110)
The Minnesota Timberwolves shot nine of their 27 total 3-point attempts in the first quarter of Game 4. But when Wembanyama got bounced, the T-Wolves bailed on the outside shooting and attacked the unprotected rim.
Minnesota had shot 30 and 40 3PAs in the two games prior, so with Wembanyama clear of a suspension, expect the T-Wolves to get pushed back out to the perimeter in Game 5.
Dosunmu went 1 for 4 from 3-point range in Game 4, which was a stark decline from his 3-for-8 effort from outside in Game 3. He missed Game 1 due to injury and was limited to only 10 minutes in Game 2, shooting 0 for 1 from distance.
In Round 1, Dosunmu averaged 2.4 triples on 4.4 3PAs and knocked down 1.8 makes from long range at a 44% clip during the regular season. His 3-point prop for Game 5 is offering great value on the Over 1.5, considering game script and projections at 1.8 3PMs.
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Timberwolves vs Spurs odds for Game 5
- Spread: Timberwolves +10.5 (-110) | Spurs -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves +325 | Spurs -425
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 (-110) | Under 218.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Spurs betting trend to know
The San Antonio Spurs have gone Over their team total in 27 of their last 45 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Spurs.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, May 10, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Timberwolves vs Spurs latest injuries
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