The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are set to begin their Round 2 matchup tonight at Frost Bank Center.
Our NBA player prop projections have crunched the numbers and found six players to wager on in tonight's affair.
If you want more NBA picks, check out our Timberwolves vs. Spurs predictions for May 4.
Timberwolves vs Spurs computer picks for Game 1
 Timberwolves |
 Spurs |
|---|---|
| Gobert o8.5 points +100 |
Harper o9.5 points -120 |
| Reid o11.5 points -110 |
Fox o17.5 points -112 |
| Randle o18.5 points -120 |
Champagnie o8.5 points -112 |
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Timberwolves Game 1 computer picks
Rudy Gobert Over 8.5 points (+100)
Projection: 10.81 points
This number is plus money because of Victor Wembanyama, and he's also the reason this is a five-star play with a 26.57% EV edge. Rudy Gobert will see plenty of minutes in this series to try to contain Wemby, and that time on the floor will naturally result in more shots.
Nine points is not asking a lot, as Gobert cleared this line three times vs. Denver.
Naz Reid Over 12.5 points (-110)
Projection: 12.58 points
Naz Reid is one of the best bench players in the NBA, and he'll be able to go to work against the San Antonio Spurs' bench unit. Reid is fresh off a 15-point performance in Game 7, and he'll carry that shooting stroke into Game 1.
Julius Randle Over 18.5 points (-120)
Projection: 19.50 points
Julius Randle's Game 1 points total is right around what he averaged against the Nuggets in Round 1. Anthony Edwards' status remains questionable, meaning several shots are still up for grabs.
Randle will get more than enough shots to reach 19 points.
Spurs Game 1 computer picks
Dylan Harper Over 9.5 points (-120)
Projection: 11.70 points
Dylan Harper balled out against Portland, averaging 12.6 points per game on 56% shooting. It's no surprise this prop is showing a 23.76% EV edge. Harper is trusted to lead the Spurs' bench unit, and our model suggests he'll do that to perfection again tonight.
De'Aaron Fox Over 17.5 points (-112)
Projection: 20.26 points
De'Aaron Fox has awakened. The point guard cleared this line in three of the five outings against the Blazers, finishing with 17 in the other two.
Fox should put up plenty more points tonight, which is why this is the third five-star play according to our model.
Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 points (-112)
Projection: 10.34 points
Julian Champagnie's job gets a whole lot easier when Wemby is on the floor. The wing just needs to knock down his catch-and-shoot threes, and he'll clear this line with little resistance.
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How to watch Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 1
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Monday, May 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
Not intended for use in MA.
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