The sky is falling in La-La Land.
The Los Angeles Lakers stagger back home for Game 5 of their Western Conference quarterfinals with the Minnesota Timberwolves, facing elimination inside Crypto.com Arena tonight.
I put player performance under the microscope and give my best NBA picks and Timberwolves vs. Lakers props for Wednesday, April 30.
Best Timberwolves vs Lakers props
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Doncic o6.5 asts (-125) -
Gobert 10+ pts & 10+ rebs (+600) - Randle 15+ pts & 7+ rebs (+110)
Timberwolves vs Lakers player props for April 30
Luka Doncic Over 6.5 assists (-125 at bet365)
If the Los Angeles Lakers are going to live to see Game 6, they need Luka Doncic to do everything. That includes setting up his teammates for easy buckets.
Doncic has been averaging 10.5 potential assists per game in this series, but with Los Angeles’ role players running cold and hot, Luka’s assist results have reflected that inconsistency.
He had just two assists in Game 4, having to take a more aggressive approach on offense with 28 field goal attempts and only nine potential assists. That came on the heels of assist totals of eight and nine in Games 3 and 4, respectively.
Doncic’s Game 5 assist prop is parked at 6.5 Over/Under but game models are confident he’ll set up at least seven buckets against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Projections range from 7.3 to 8.3 dimes, with my number at 7.9 dimes. That should have the Over 6.5 assists lugging vig around -195.
With the Lakers looking at elimination, Luka is going to have the ball in his hands most possessions and the return to Crypto.com Arena should help with L.A.’s shooting woes. The Purple and Gold were the 11th-best shooting team on their own floor this season.
Rudy Gobert 10+ points & 10+ rebounds (+600 at bet365)
The T-Wolves’ center has been very quiet in this quarterfinal series, outside of his forearm shiver to the back of LeBron James’ head in Game 4. Rudy Gobert has played less than 30 minutes in all four games, averaging only 3.5 points and 6.3 rebounds.
That’s well below his season efforts of 12 points and 11 rebounds a night, which is a stat line that earned the 7-footer a total of 36 double-doubles in the regular season (T-14th).
Gobert did show signs of life in the Game 4 victory, finishing with 10 rebounds and attempting six field goals (a series high), but making only one of those shots. He added 3 of 4 free-throw attempts to score five points.
Despite that dip in output, Game 5 player models are still optimistic about Gobert. His scoring forecasts range from 7.8 to 9.4 points and his rebounding projections come in between 8.3 and 9.6 boards.
The two-way double-double prop market for Gobert is priced at “Yes” +375, but if you make a milestone same-game parlay of Gobert 10+ points and 10+ rebounds (the most likely double-double combo), you get a payout of +600.
Given his abilities, the Lakers’ lack of size around the rim, and the Game 5 projections (along with the pricing discrepancy), this Gobert SGP is worth the wager tonight.
Julius Randle 15+ points & 7+ rebounds (+110 at bet365)
Julius Randle has been sticking it to his old team in this Round 1 matchup, with the versatile forward posting 22, 25, and 27-point efforts in the last three games.
He’s projected for another 20-plus outing in Game 5 with models ranging from 19.5 to 21.5 points. The rebounding forecasts also love Randle’s work on the glass, with those projections bouncing between 7.5 and 9.2 rebounds tonight.
Randle’s rebounding hasn’t been as active as the regular season. After he averaged more than seven boards per game, his rebounding is down to 5.3 per outing in this series. He is, however, coming off a seven-rebound showing in Game 4 and that includes two offensive rebounds — a stat that often comes with second-chance points.
Los Angeles is severely undersized around the rim and starting center Jaxon Hayes is gassed, playing only four minutes Sunday. The Lakers are allowing 11.8 offensive rebounds per contest, including 18 in Game 4.
Randle’s rebounding total opened as big as 7.5 O/U and even after the move down to 6.5 O/U with Over is priced as high as -150 at sharper shops. Given the temperature of that market and the positive player projections, Randle’s going to grab at least seven boards.
His current scoring total is 20.5 O/U with his milestone of 15+ points juiced to -500. Given the projections above, 15 or more points should be an issue and helps us trim the vig on 7+ rebounds.
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