Thunder vs Spurs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Spurs Offense Suffers in Spite of Sochan

The Spurs are once again staring down the barrel of a double-digit spread when they welcome the favored Thunder into San Antonio on Thursday night. Although our NBA betting picks see value in the Jeremy Sochan odds, the Spurs should be expected to struggle.

Feb 29, 2024 • 14:15 ET • 4 min read
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder will look to keep rolling when they visit Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs tonight.

The Thunder enter this Western Conference matchup winners of six in a row and just a half-game behind the Minnesota Timberwolves for the top spot in the West.

On the other side, while Wembanyama is separating himself from the pack when it comes to NBA Rookie of the Year odds, the Spurs still look a little way away from being relevant again.

So, it’s no surprise to see a big spread in the NBA odds for this matchup. Can OKC cover all those points or does San Antonio have some value as a home dog?

I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Spurs on Thursday, February 29.

Thunder vs Spurs odds

Thunder vs Spurs predictions

Despite being young, the Oklahoma City Thunder look legit. They have a serious contender for the NBA MVP odds with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander having the second-best odds to win the award. They play great defense, have high energy, and are well-coached.

They also enter this game winners of six in a row straight up and against the spread. So, going against a San Antonio Spurs team that is just 11-48 means a big spread for this matchup. And it is, sitting at 11 points. 

Not to say the Thunder can’t cover big numbers. They have already covered two double-digit spreads during this most recent winning streak. But big numbers come with risk, so I’m looking for the Thunder to clap their might elsewhere. 

OKC’s energy at the defensive end of the floor might be one of their more impressive traits. They are a long, athletic team that can disrupt shots and passing lanes better than most. As a result, the Thunder rank fourth in defensive rating, opponent effective field goal percentage, and steals while leading the NBA in blocks.

And even though rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama continues to make jaws drop on a nightly basis, he’s just one man. As a team, the Spurs rank 27th in offensive rating, 26th in eFG%, and are dead last when it comes to 3-point shooting percentage.

That results in the Spurs putting up just 111.9 points per game this season. Their team total for this matchup is sitting at 113.5.

In two previous meetings against the Thunder, the Spurs put up 87 and 114 points, respectively, and they only got to 114 last time thanks to a 38-point fourth-quarter outburst where the Thunder had the win wrapped up and clearly did not care.

San Antonio has been held below this number in 11 of its last 14 games, while OKC hasn’t allowed an opponent to top this number during its current winning streak.

My best bet: Spurs team total Under 113.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Thunder vs Spurs same-game parlay

Spurs team total Under 113.5

Jeremy Sochan Over 5.5 rebounds

Jeremy Sochan Over 2.5 assists

While the Spurs might struggle to get buckets in this one, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few player props I like for them. Well, for one player specifically. Can you guess who?

Wrong. It’s Jeremy Sochan. The sophomore power forward out of Baylor is showing some promise, averaging 11.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. 

One of the few areas the Thunder struggle is on the glass, where they rank next to last in rebounding rate. Sochan’s rebounding prop is sitting at 5.5. He’s gone Over that number in three of his last six games. 

But Sochan’s assists prop is the really juicy one. That’s sitting at just 2.5. He’s gone Over that number in two of his last three and in both previous meetings against the Thunder this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Thunder vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

Not surprisingly, the Thunder opened this Western Conference clash as big 10.5-point road favorites and have seen the early action with the line moving to OKC -11 as of early Thursday afternoon.

For me, this is either a spot to lay the points or stay away. OKC won both previous matchups in which they were favored by nine and 10 points, respectively, by exactly 36 points. They have been one of the best bets in the NBA all season long at 37-21 ATS. However, the Spurs have covered their last three games as double-digit dogs.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 237.5 and has been bet up slightly to 238 as of writing. The two previous meetings saw the total close at 237.5 and 241.5, respectively. The first meeting fell well below the number thanks to the Thunder limiting the Spurs to 87 points. The more recent matchup did end up going Over but was trending Under before a 78-point fourth quarter.

As I broke down above, I think buckets could be tough to come by for the Spurs tonight, so I would lean toward the full-game Under as well.

Thunder vs Spurs betting trend to know

The Spurs have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games for +11.3 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Spurs.

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Thunder vs Spurs game info

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Date: Thursday, February 29, 2024
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: KENS, BSOK

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