A line of -17.5 seems more suited for an early-season college basketball cupcake game than an NBA tilt. However, if any two teams in the Association have earned that degree of separation, it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans.
OKC is the defending champion and is 13-1 on the season. New Orleans is 2-11 and has already fired its coach.
Will the Thunder cover the huge line on the road? There’s no question that they could, but “should” is another issue entirely. OKC could use Monday’s sure thing to rest up while cruising to victory. My Thunder vs. Pelicans predictions and NBA picks call for New Orleans to cover.
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Thunder vs Pelicans prediction
Thunder vs Pelicans best bet: Pelicans +17.5 (-110)
Big spreads between these two teams are nothing new, and they haven’t slowed the Oklahoma City Thunder down. OKC has been favored by 12.5 points or more in four of its last five against the New Orleans Pelicans and covered in all of those games. They also covered the fifth game in that stretch as 8-point favorites.
Oklahoma City has also covered three double-digit lines in the last 10 games, although they failed to cover a 17-point spread at Charlotte last time out, only winning by 13. New Orleans, meanwhile, is just 2-3 when getting double-digit points in the last 10 games, failing to cover 10.5 last time out against Golden State.
That Warriors game was the first with interim coach James Borrego at the helm. The veteran NBA head coach has vowed a commitment to defense in New Orleans, and the Pelicans responded, holding Steph Curry to nine points on 2-for-11 shooting. The rest of Golden State lit things up, however.
A defensive focus may mean slowing things down. Both teams play in the Bottom 10 in the league in pace as it is. That could put the big spread in jeopardy. OKC coach Mark Daigneault also reminded his team of the need to play defense midway through the Charlotte game.
The Thunder has won five in a row, despite missing several injured rotation players, including Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins. Shooting guard Alex Caruso has also been added to the injury list with a hand problem after being limited to just two minutes against Charlotte in the last game.
With a big early lead and both teams looking to slow things down and focus on defense, the Thunder should be free to give defending MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander some time off in the second half. All of that translates to a final score that doesn’t accurately display the difference between the two teams. Look for New Orleans to cover.
Thunder vs Pelicans same-game parlay
The same factors pushing this game toward a New Orleans cover also have it looking like an Under. Defensive effort means fewer points, and even though New Orleans has been shaky on defense, it should still produce a lower score than usual. OKC has gone Under in four of its last five, as well as its previous three when favored by double-digits.
You don’t change coaches to keep doing things the same way, and, one game in, James Borrego is already changing the playing rotation. Jose Alvarado appears to be a beneficiary. He played 25 minutes against Golden State, the most playing time he’s gotten in six games and his second-most this season. He also got a season-high 12 shots and matched a season high with 18 points.
Thunder vs Pelicans SGP
- Pelicans +17.5
- Under 224.5
- Jose Alvarado Over 8.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Trey trending down
This prop seems like a bit of a risk. Trey Murphy has been New Orleans’ top scoring option with Zion Williamson out. He’s topped 20 points in his last five games, averaging 27.8 over that span.
There are red flags on the horizon, however. Borrego is testing out new combinations, increasing Alvarado’s minutes and giving rookie Derik Queen his first NBA start. Murphy appears to be on the wrong end of that experimentation.
His minutes fell from nearly 39 in Willie Green’s last game as coach to 31 in Borrego’s first, his lowest playing time of the season. His shots also fell from 21 to 13, matching his lowest since before Halloween.
Thunder vs Pelicans SGP
- Pelicans +17.5
- Under 224.5
- Jose Alvarado Over 8.5 points
- Trey Murphy III Under 17.5 points
Thunder vs Pelicans odds
- Spread: Thunder -17.5 | Pelicans +17.5
- Moneyline: Thunder -2000 | Pelicans +1000
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Thunder vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Pelicans have won just 19 of their last 81 games, while OKC has won 82 of its last 100. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Thunder vs Pelicans
| Location | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Monday, November 17, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN-Oklahoma, GCSEN |
Thunder vs Pelicans latest injuries
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