Colombia quietly put together one of the tournament's more impressive group-stage campaigns, while Ghana did just enough to punch its ticket to the knockout rounds.
The Cafeteros enter tonight's Round of 32 showdown as deserved -199 favorites, and I expect their defensive discipline to pave the way for a low-scoring victory.
Read on for my Colombia vs. Ghana predictions and World Cup picks for Friday, July 3, with kickoff set for 9:30 p.m. ET from Kansas City.
Colombia vs Ghana predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Colombia | -199 |
| Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 | -149 |
| Goal Scorer Pick: Luis Diaz | +173 |
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TOP PICK
Who will win Colombia vs Ghana: Colombia (-199)
Colombia have yet to hit top gear at this World Cup, but thanks to their attacking prowess, I expect them to overwhelm Ghana.
One of the key lessons from the group phase was that the Colombian players are more comfortable on the ball than their Ghanaian counterparts. They have the potential to dominate possession and pin the African underdogs in their own third of the field.
Whether Colombia can turn considerable territorial advantage into goals is open to question. When facing the other two Group I teams (Portugal and DR Congo) that qualified for the knockout phase, Colombia had 44 attempts on goal — 15 of which were on target — but scored just once.
Still, a single goal may be enough against limited opposition. Ghana spent much of the group phase with a defensive mindset and will struggle to switch modes if required to focus on going forward.
Back Colombia to win in regulation time. Playable to -210 in the latest World Cup odds.
COVERS INTEL: The six combined Group K and Group L matches involving Colombia and Ghana averaged just 1.50 goals per game. Under 2.5 goals cashed in four of those six contests, while Under 1.5 goals hit in three.Colombia vs Ghana Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-149)
Ghana are likely to employ defensive, risk-free tactics. They looked happiest during the group phase when defined by a defensive low block, and will be content to keep this match scoreless for as long as they possibly can.
Colombia created eight ‘Big Chances’ (according to Opta’s definition) during the group phase, but half of them came in one game, against Uzbekistan, the weakest of the three teams that they faced. The South Americans lack a world-class goalscorer, and much of the clever attacking play they produce in the opposition half goes to waste.
An early goal for either side would change the match dynamics. Otherwise, Colombia will be happy to play patiently, and Ghana have shown they can soak up pressure for long periods. Back the Under to -150.
Colombia vs Ghana goal scorer pick: Luis Diaz (+173)
Luis Diaz is a world-class performer and the man most likely to emerge as the match-winner.
The Bayern Munich winger frequently produced big performances at club level during the 2025-26 season and has the experience to handle the high-pressure situation that Colombia find themselves in.
Despite operating as a wide rather than central attacker, Diaz sports a reasonable scoring record in national team colors (22 goals in 74 games).
He showed flashes of danger during the group stage, generating three shots on target, but I expect Diaz to elevate his game now that the knockout rounds have begun in the World Cup bracket. Playable to +150.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Colombia vs Ghana projected lineup
Colombia (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Sanchez, Lucumi, Mojica; Puerta, Lerma; Arias, Rodriguez, Diaz; Suarez
Ghana (4-3-3): Asare; Senaya, Adjetey, Opoku, Mensah; Partey, Sibo, Yirenkyi; Semenyo, Ayew, Kamaldeen
Colombia vs Ghana injuries
Colombia: No key injuries to report.
Ghana: No key injuries to report.
Colombia vs Ghana weather
Expect a hot, dry evening in Kansas City, with temperatures in the low 90s.
Colombia vs Ghana odds
 Colombia |
 Ghana |
|
|---|---|---|
| -199 | Moneyline | +625 |
| +296 | Draw | +296 |
| Over 2.5 (+124) | Total | Under 2.5 (-149) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Colombia vs Ghana
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Friday, July 3, 2026 |
| Time | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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